The Inevitability of Open Access

Abstract

Open access (OA) is an alternative business model for the publication of scholarly journals. It makes articles freely available to readers on the Internet and covers the costs associated with publication through means other than subscriptions. This article argues that Gold OA, where all of the articles of a journal are available at the time of publication, is a disruptive innovation as defined by business theorist Clayton Christensen. Using methods described by Christensen, we can predict the growth of Gold OA. This analysis suggests that Gold OA could account for 50 percent of the scholarly journal articles sometime between 2017 and 2021, and 90 percent of articles as soon as 2020 and more conservatively by 2025.

Nachhaltige Infrastruktur für die Literatur- und Informationsversorgung: im digitalen Zeitalter ein überholtes Paradigma – oder so wichtig wie noch nie?

“…94 Die Bereitstellung von Literatur in Open Access wird sich auf die Dauer sicher durchsetzen, weil kein Wissenschaftler auf den verlinkten Zugriff zu seiner Publikation verzichten will. 95 Deshalb sollte jedem Forscher an seiner Heimateinrichtung wie in fachlichen Repositorien den FID-Bibliotheken ein kostenfreier Veröffentlichungsservice offen stehen, der neben der dauerhaften Zugänglichkeit auch für weltweite Sichtbarkeit sorgt. Diesem "curated content", der auch Forschungsdaten umfasst, geben die Bibliotheken Dauerhaftigkeit.…”

Scholarly Communication and the Dilemma of Collective Action: Why Academic Journals Cost Too Much

“…Within the next decade, there will be a "radical shift in the nature of scholarly journal publishing" because OA will rapidly disrupt the business model of subscription publishers. 34 Lewis acknowledges that using Christensen's curve to predict the future of scholarly publishing is a "bold claim," and there are good reasons to be skeptical of his predictions. 35 Christensen initially developed his theory through a close historical analysis of the computer disc drive industry in the 1950s-1980s, and there is some doubt that Christensen's theory accurately explains what happened in that industry.…”

“…34 Lewis acknowledges that using Christensen's curve to predict the future of scholarly publishing is a "bold claim," and there are good reasons to be skeptical of his predictions. 35 Christensen initially developed his theory through a close historical analysis of the computer disc drive industry in the 1950s-1980s, and there is some doubt that Christensen's theory accurately explains what happened in that industry. 36 As the New Yorker has shown, established businesses in the disc drive industry were much more successful in adapting to new technologies than Christensen acknowledged.…”

“…Lewis predicts that 90 percent of scholarly peer-reviewed articles will be published in OA journals by 2020 or 2025. 33 Lewis's argument is worth considering in detail because he explicitly articulates the implicit assumptions of many who believe that Gold OA ultimately will relieve libraries of the burden of high-priced subscriptions.…”

The UK Scholarly Communication Licence: Attempting to Cut through the Gordian Knot of the Complexities of Funder Mandates, Publisher Embargoes and Researcher Caution in Achieving Open Access

“…Discussions of open access in the literature have shifted in recent years from focusing on the principles of OA to practical issues associated with its widespread implementation [23][24][25]. OA implementation, however, is complex-whilst the idea of OA is relatively simple, embedding it in practice involves addressing a complex set of challenges [21,26].…”