The influence of life history traits on the phenological response of British butterflies to climate variability since the late‐19th century

Brooks, Stephen J.; Self, Angela; Powney, Gary D.; Pearse, William D.; Penn, Malcolm; Paterson, Gordon L.J.

doi:10.1111/ecog.02658

Cited by 35 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…This is reflected in the greater abundance of individuals in generation two in the museum collections and in population monitoring data (Thomas, ; Thomas & Lewington, ; UKBMS, ). A phenological study of British butterfly species found that in warmer years, both generations one and two of P. bellargus emerge earlier than in cooler years (Brooks et al, ). Therefore, it is possible that any increase in growth rate due to increased temperature is counteracted by an earlier emergence time leading to no overall change in average size between years for generation two.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of ecological and life history factors on ectothermic temperature–size responses: Analysis of three Lycaenidae butterflies (Lepidoptera)

Wilson

Brooks

Fenberg

2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Body size has been shown to decrease with increasing temperature in many species, prompting the suggestion that it is a universal ecological response. However, species with complex life cycles, such as holometabolous insects, may have correspondingly complicated temperature–size responses. Recent research suggests that life history and ecological traits may be important for determining the direction and strength of temperature–size responses. Yet, these factors are rarely included in analyses. Here, we aim to determine whether the size of the bivoltine butterfly, Polyommatus bellargus, and the univoltine butterflies, Plebejus argus and Polyommatus coridon, change in response to temperature and whether these responses differ between the sexes, and for P. bellargus, between generations. Forewing length was measured using digital specimens from the Natural History Museum, London (NHM), from one locality in the UK per species. The data were initially compared to annual and seasonal temperature values, without consideration of life history factors. Sex and generation of the individuals and mean monthly temperatures, which cover the growing period for each species, were then included in analyses. When compared to annual or seasonal temperatures only, size was not related to temperature for P. bellargus and P. argus, but there was a negative relationship between size and temperature for P. coridon. When sex, generation, and monthly temperatures were included, male adult size decreased as temperature increased in the early larval stages, and increased as temperature increased during the late larval stages. Results were similar but less consistent for females, while second generation P. bellargus showed no temperature–size response. In P. coridon, size decreased as temperature increased during the pupal stage. These results highlight the importance of including life history factors, sex, and monthly temperature data when studying temperature–size responses for species with complex life cycles.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of ecological and life history factors on ectothermic temperature–size responses: Analysis of three Lycaenidae butterflies (Lepidoptera)

Wilson

Brooks

Fenberg

2019

Ecology and Evolution

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“…In contrast, patterns that have been reported for species‐level reaction norms suggest positive correlations may be common, as species that have earlier mean dates of activity (lower intercept) also tend to be more sensitive to climate (more negative slope, e.g., Brooks et al. for butterflies, Hülber et al. and Wolkovich et al.…”

Section: Characterizing Phenological Plasticity: Phenological Reactiomentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Previous authors generally advocate the use of population mean, median, or peak dates instead, or a quantile (i.e., 5% or 10% along an estimated phenological distribution, e.g., Brooks et al. ), emphasizing the statistical sampling issues associated with minimum and maximum values drawn from any probability distribution (e.g., Moussus et al. , Strebel et al.…”

Section: Using Phenological Distributions and Reaction Norms To Answementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although several studies have documented individual variation in slopes of phenological reaction norms (e.g., van Asch et al 2007, Reed et al 2009), we found no studies where authors have tested correlations of slopes and intercepts for phenological traits at this level. In contrast, patterns that have been reported for specieslevel reaction norms suggest positive correlations may be common, as species that have earlier mean dates of activity (lower intercept) also tend to be more sensitive to climate (more negative slope, e.g., Brooks et al [2017] for butterflies, H€ ulber et al [2010] and Wolkovich et al…”

Section: May 2019mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Phenology as a process rather than an event: from individual reaction norms to community metrics

Inouye

Ehrlén

Underwood

2019

Ecological Monographs

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Measures of the seasonal timing of biological events are key to addressing questions about how phenology evolves, modifies species interactions, and mediates biological responses to climate change. Phenology is often characterized in terms of discrete events, such as a date of first flowering or arrival of first migrants. We discuss how phenological events that are typically measured at the population or species level arise from distributions of phenological events across seasons, and from norms of reaction of these phenological events across environments. We argue that individual variation in phenological distributions and reaction norms has important implications for how we should collect, analyze, and interpret phenological information. Regarding phenology as a reaction norm rather than one year's specific values implies that selection acts on the phenologies that an individual expresses over its lifetime. To understand how climate change is likely to influence phenology, we need to consider not only plastic responses along the reaction norm but changes in the reaction norm itself. We show that when individuals vary in their reaction norms, correlations between reaction norm elevation and slope make first events particularly poor estimators of population sensitivity to climate change, and variation in slopes can obscure the pattern of selection on phenology. We also show that knowing the shape of the distribution of phenological events across the season is important for predicting biologically important phenological mismatches with climate change. Last, because phenological events are parts of a continuous developmental process, we suggest that the approach of measuring phenology by recording developmental stages of individuals in a population at a single point in time should be used more widely. We conclude that failure to account for phenological distributions and reaction norms may lead to overinterpretation of metrics based on single events, such as commonly recorded first event dates, and may confound meta‐analyses that use a range of metrics. Rather than prescribing a single universal approach to studying phenology, we point out limitations of inferences based on single metrics and encourage work that considers the multivariate nature of phenology and more tightly links data collection and analyses with biological hypotheses.

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“…

normalS normale normaln normals normali normalt normali normalv normali normalt normaly = s_{j} + ɛ

normalS normale normaln normals normali normalt normali normalv normali normalt normaly = s_{j} + normalR normalR normalP + ɛ

normalS normale normaln normals normali normalt normali normalv normali normalt normaly = s_{j} + normalR normalR normalP + {normalR normalR normalP}^{2} + ɛ

where s j is a random species intercept,

normalR normalR normalP

is the relative range position for each model, and

ɛ

is a normally distributed error term. To check whether phylogenetic relationships between the modelled species could influence our conclusions, we constructed a second model that incorporated the phylogeny of Brooks et al () into the random effects structure using the MCMCglmm package (Hadfield, ). We found that the phylogenetic variance terms approached zero and the model fit was almost identical (Supporting Information Appendix S1 and Figure S2).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

European butterfly populations vary in sensitivity to weather across their geographical ranges

Mills

Oliver

Bradbury

et al. 2017

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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Aim: The aim was to assess the sensitivity of butterfly population dynamics to variation in weather conditions across their geographical ranges, relative to sensitivity to density dependence, and determine whether sensitivity is greater towards latitudinal range margins. Location: Europe.Time period: 1980-2014.Major taxa studied: Butterflies.Methods: We use long-term (35 years) butterfly monitoring data from > 900 sites, ranging from Finland to Spain, grouping sites into 28 latitudinal bands. For 12 univoltine butterfly species with sufficient data from at least four bands, we construct population growth rate models that include density dependence, temperature and precipitation during distinct life-cycle periods, defined to accommodate regional variation in phenology. We use partial R 2 values as indicators of butterfly population dynamics' sensitivity to weather and density dependence, and assess how these vary with latitudinal position within a species' distribution.

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The influence of life history traits on the phenological response of British butterflies to climate variability since the late‐19th century

Abstract: This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please

Cited by 35 publications

References 55 publications

The influence of ecological and life history factors on ectothermic temperature–size responses: Analysis of three Lycaenidae butterflies (Lepidoptera)

The influence of ecological and life history factors on ectothermic temperature–size responses: Analysis of three Lycaenidae butterflies (Lepidoptera)

Phenology as a process rather than an event: from individual reaction norms to community metrics

European butterfly populations vary in sensitivity to weather across their geographical ranges

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