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iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry
IntroductionFire danger is generally understood as the likelihood of a fire to occur (Chuvieco & Congalton 1989). In fire danger assessments the evaluation of the chances of fire ignition is generally done by identifying the contributing factors and their integration into an index quantifying the level of danger (Chuvieco et al. 2003, Sebastián-López et al. 2008. For the probability of a fire to occur, two agents are identified: natural (predominantly lightning) and anthropogenic causes, which are mainly related to human activities. In this context, the probability of human-caused fire ignition is the result of the direct or indirect presence of human activity in the landscape (Martinez et al. 2009). International studies indicate that roughly 90% of forest fires are human-caused, whereas only a small percentage of forest fires have natural causes, i.e., lightning (Cardille et al. 2001, Grissino-Mayer et al. 2004, Mollicone et al. 2006, Vacik et al. 2011. In Europe, human activities account for the majority of fire ignition (Leone et al. 2002, Catry et al. 2009, Martinez et al. 2009).Various goods and services provided by forests such as water supply, carbon sinks, recreation and protection services are most likely to be impacted by wildfires (Wotton et al. 2003, Grissino-Mayer et al. 2004, Brown et al. 2004, Fried et al. 2004, Catry et al. 2009, Dumas et al. 2008, Weibel et al. 2009). Especially in the densely populated European mountain forests the danger of fire ignition is of high significance for the maintenance of its ecosystem goods and services as these ecosystems are very sensitive to environmental changes (Steininger & WeckHannemann 2002, Lindner et al. 2010. Additionally the economic value of goods and services of the alpine region experiences an increased recognition especially through sporting activities and outdoor recreation (Hall & Page 2009). Furthermore, the alpine region is crossed by important transit and trade routes. They aid in promoting tourism in the mountainous regions across Europe (Gambino & Romano 2003, Nordregio 2004, Brauchle 2006, which is leading to an increased development of touristic infrastructure besides the extensive use by naturebased tourism (Gambino & Romano 2003, Heinrichs et al. 2010). The herewith associated rise in pressure on forests through a growing number of tourists is potentially increasing danger of fire ignition. The increasing significance of transportation for the supply of living goods as well as for the provision of access to services potentially affects fire ignition as well. Several international studies have shown the significance of the distance of forest fires to roads, settlements and infrastructure, or specific land uses or even its abandonment as predisposition for fire ignition (Vega-Garcia et al. 1995, Goldammer 2003, Kalabokidis et al. 2002, Catry et al. 2009, Martinez et al. 2009).Although human factors are relatively important when analyzing forest fire ignition, little attention has been paid to their s...