The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter: implications for health impact assessments

Fenech, Sara; Doherty, Ruth M.; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Macintyre, Helen L.; O’Connor, Fiona M.

doi:10.5194/acp-2017-1074

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…These studies employed global chemistry–transport models with coarse spatial resolution (≥ 0.5° × 0.5°); therefore, health benefits from reducing local emissions were not able to be adequately captured. Higher resolutions are necessary to calculate more robust estimates of health benefits from local vs. non-local sources (Fenech et al, 2017). In addition, these studies calculated the number of premature deaths due to air pollution; however, none of them address morbidity such as number of lung cancer or asthma cases, or restricted activity days.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

et al. 2018

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The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2).Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry–transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %.A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

et al. 2018

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“…In addition, previous studies applied coarse-scale ozone projections in China [ 16 , 17 ], which may bias ozone-related acute excess mortality in populous urban areas. Punger and West found that using coarse resolutions may lead to a small overestimation (<6%) in the US [ 18 ], whereas Fenech et al found low but significant biases (−0.9% to +2.6%) in the attributable fraction of total mortality due to warm season ozone exposure in Europe [ 19 ]. As China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases [ 20 ], and suffers from severe ambient ozone pollution [ 21 ], estimating the impact of climate change on ozone-related health effects is critical for understanding the indirect health impacts of climate change in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study

et al. 2018

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BackgroundClimate change is likely to further worsen ozone pollution in already heavily polluted areas, leading to increased ozone-related health burdens. However, little evidence exists in China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and most populated country. As China is embracing an aging population with changing population size and falling age-standardized mortality rates, the potential impact of population change on ozone-related health burdens is unclear. Moreover, little is known about the seasonal variation of ozone-related health burdens under climate change. We aimed to assess near-term (mid-21st century) future annual and seasonal excess mortality from short-term exposure to ambient ozone in 104 Chinese cities under 2 climate and emission change scenarios and 6 population change scenarios.Methods and findingsWe collected historical ambient ozone observations, population change projections, and baseline mortality rates in 104 cities across China during April 27, 2013, to October 31, 2015 (2013–2015), which included approximately 13% of the total population of mainland China. Using historical ozone monitoring data, we performed bias correction and spatially downscaled future ozone projections at a coarse spatial resolution (2.0° × 2.5°) for the period April 27, 2053, to October 31, 2055 (2053–2055), from a global chemistry–climate model to a fine spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) under 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5, a moderate global warming and emission scenario where global warming is between 1.5°C and 2.0°C, and RCP8.5, a high global warming and emission scenario where global warming exceeds 2.0°C. We then estimated the future annual and seasonal ozone-related acute excess mortality attributable to both climate and population changes using cause-specific, age-group-specific, and season-specific concentration–response functions (CRFs). We used Monte Carlo simulations to obtain empirical confidence intervals (eCIs), quantifying the uncertainty in CRFs and the variability across ensemble members (i.e., 3 predictions of future climate and air quality from slightly different starting conditions) of the global model. Estimates of future changes in annual ozone-related mortality are sensitive to the choice of global warming and emission scenario, decreasing under RCP4.5 (−24.0%) due to declining ozone precursor emissions but increasing under RCP8.5 (10.7%) due to warming climate in 2053–2055 relative to 2013–2015. Higher ambient ozone occurs under the high global warming and emission scenario (RCP8.5), leading to an excess 1,476 (95% eCI: 898 to 2,977) non-accidental deaths per year in 2053–2055 relative to 2013–2015. Future ozone-related acute excess mortality from cardiovascular diseases was 5–8 times greater than that from respiratory diseases. Ozone concentrations increase by 15.1 parts per billion (10−9) in colder months (November to April), contributing to a net yearly increase of 22.3% (95% eCI: 7.7% to 35.4%) in ozone-related m...

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“…However, there are differences in the temporal distribution, chemical speciation and the vertical distribution used in the models. The C-IFS model (Flemming et al, 2015(Flemming et al, , 2017 provided chemical boundary conditions. The C-IFS model has been extensively evaluated in Flemming et al (2015Flemming et al ( , 2017 and in particular for North America (Hogrefe et al, 2018;Huang et al, 2017).…”

Section: Emission and Boundary Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The C-IFS model (Flemming et al, 2015(Flemming et al, , 2017 provided chemical boundary conditions. The C-IFS model has been extensively evaluated in Flemming et al (2015Flemming et al ( , 2017 and in particular for North America (Hogrefe et al, 2018;Huang et al, 2017). Galmarini et al (2017) provides more details on the setup of the AQMEII3 and HTAP2 projects.…”

Section: Emission and Boundary Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2018

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The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter: implications for health impact assessments

Cited by 4 publications

References 23 publications

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study

Response to Reviewer 4

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