he burden of cancer is increasing rapidly, 1 including in Australia, 2 partly because of ageing populations, reduced competing mortality from cardiovascular disease, and changes in exposure to risk factors for cancer. A further contributor is overdiagnosis, or the diagnosis of cancer in people who would never have experienced symptoms or harm had the cancer remained undetected and untreated. 3,4 Overdiagnosis of certain screen-detected cancers is common, 5 including 20-50% of prostate cancer 6 and 11-19% of breast cancer diagnoses. 7 Cancer can also be overdiagnosed outside screening programs. Overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer 8 is attributable to incidental detection during investigations of unrelated problems; 9 overdiagnosis of renal cancer and melanoma is less well investigated. 10 Overdiagnosis is important because of the associated iatrogenic harms and costs. 3,11 Harms include the psychosocial impact of unnecessary cancer diagnoses, such as the increased suicide risk for men after being diagnosed with prostate cancer. 12,13 Cancer treatments such as surgery, radiotherapy, endocrine therapy, and chemotherapy can cause physical harm, but the risks are considered acceptable if diagnosis is appropriate. When someone is unnecessarily diagnosed with cancer, however, they can only be harmed by treatment, not helped. 4 Concerns about the overdiagnosis and overtreatment of cancer have led to calls to investigate the problem. 5,14 To facilitate the evaluation of interventions for reducing overdiagnosis, we estimated overdiagnosis levels in Australia for five of the seven cancers for which overdiagnosis has been documented: 4 melanoma, and breast, prostate, thyroid and renal cancers. Neuroblastoma was not included because neuroblastoma screening is not undertaken in Australia, and lung cancer was excluded because declines in smoking rates and the unquantified uptake of screening complicate the assessment of overdiagnosis. Methods We aimed to estimate the proportion of cancer diagnoses in Australia that might reasonably be attributed to overdiagnosis by calculating and comparing current and past lifetime risks of cancer, a method we developed for assessing prostate cancer overdiagnosis. 15 Excess lifetime risk for five cancers with recognised overdiagnosis potential We analysed data routinely collected by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. 16 We extracted data on cancerspecific diagnoses, cancer-specific deaths, all deaths, and population numbers to calculate, separately for women and men, differences in the lifetime risks of being diagnosed with specific cancers during in 1982 and in 2012. The comparator year (1982) was the first for which publicly available national data were available; further, there was no breast cancer screening program in 1982, little informal screening for prostate cancer or melanoma, and ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) screening that could detect incidental thyroid and renal cancers was infrequent. The index year (2012) was the most recent year for which data on the included...