The influence of passenger air traffic on the spread of COVID-19 in the world

Abstract

Countries in the world are suffering from COVID-19 and would like to control it. Thus, some authorities voted for new policies and even stopped passenger air traffic. Those decisions were not uniform, and this study focuses on how passenger air traffic might influence the spread of COVID-19 in the world. We used data sets of cases from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University and air transport (passengers carried) from the World Bank. Besides, we computed Poisson, QuasiPoisson, Negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models with cross-validation to make sure that our findings are robust. Actually, when passenger air traffic increases by one unit, the number of cases increases by one new infection.

Assessment of the Adherence to Standard Operating Procedures of Covid-19 among Market Vendors in Sironko District

“…Other transmissions modes like circumcision y & political rallies registered little acceptance in this regard with corresponding percentages of; 32 %, 35 %, 15 %, 30 %, 33 % & 45 respectively. Contact with cough droplet was significantly higher (p<0.05) than all other modes of COVID-19 transmission This finding is in agreement with recent findings by Peeri et al [22] and Uwe et al contrary, Yves & A, [24] revealed that COVID was highly spread through air passengers from Wuhan to the whole globe. Interestingly the respondents generated a variety of response on the signs & symptoms of C Difficulties in breathing, loss of smell and taste, fever, dry cough, chest pain, arches and pain, loss of speech and movement were highly outstanding signs and symptoms of COVID (p<0.05).…”

COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey

“…However, relevant evidence has been accumulated quickly. Sokadjo and Atchadé ( 2020 ) found that at the global level, passenger air traffic is positively related to the number of infections. Zhang et al (2020a) showed that infection cases in China were strongly associated with frequencies of flights and high-speed trains, while Zhang et al (2020b) revealed the imported case risk imposed by foreign countries on Chinese provinces and further confirmed the effectiveness of China's strict restriction on inbound flights after March 26 in dramatically reducing the imported case risk.…”

Cross-Validation Comparison of COVID-19 Forecast Models

“…Originally from China in Wuhan city, COVID-19 has been declared as a world pandemic by WHO Emergency Committee on January 30th, 2020 [1]. Since that day, we are observing rapid increases [2][3][4] of cases that made authorities give daily government communication to update the information of the day before. In this context, one of the main issues is to know the future number of cases [5] with the least possible bias [6], to create adaptative tools [7], to determine the reproduction number [8][9][10][11][12], to check Recovery Time Period [13], or other parameters to define appropriate policies to control COVID-19 spread.…”