Maintaining post-operative mechanical stability is crucial for successfully healing intertrochanteric fractures treated with the Proximal Femoral Nail Antirotation (PFNA) system. This stability is primarily dependent on the bone mineral density (BMD) and strain on the fracture. Current PFNA failure analyses often overlook the uncertainties related to BMD and body weight (BW). Therefore, this study aimed to develop a probabilistic model using finite element modeling and engineering reliability analysis to assess the post-operative performance of PFNA under various physiological loading conditions. The model predictions were validated through a series of experimental test. The results revealed a negative nonlinear relationship between the BMD and compressive strain. Conversely, the BW was positively and linearly correlated with the compressive strain. Importantly, the compressive strain was more sensitive to BW than to BMD when the BMD exceeded 0.6 g/cm3. Potential trabecular bone compression failure is also indicated if BMD is equal to or below 0.15 g/cm3 and BW increases to approximately 2.5 times the normal or higher. This study emphasizes that variations in the BMD significantly affect the probability of failure of a PFNA system. Thus, careful planning of post-operative physical therapy is essential. For patients aged > 50 years restrictions on high-intensity activities are advised, while limiting strenuous movements is recommended for those aged > 65 years.