The Influence of Temporary Employment on Unemployment Exits in a Competing Risks Framework

Abstract

Unemployment exits, Temporary employment, Competing risks model, Unobserved heterogeneity, J64, J65,

Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis

“…As expected, an unemployed person in a region with a high unemployment rate has a smaller probability of receiving a job offer and therefore a longer unemployment spell than a similar person in a region with a low unemployment rate. This is consistent with other findings for Spain like Arranz and Muro (2004), Alba et al (2012), Arranz et al (2010) and Bover, Arellano and Bentolila (2002).…”

“…An exit to any job is 30% more likely for a man than for an otherwise similar woman during the expansion period, and only 17% in the recession. Similar results are found by Arranz and Muro (2004), Arranz et al (2010) and in Alba et al (2012) for exits to new jobs (not recalls). The estimates distinguishing exits to stable and unstable jobs show that before the crisis, the gender difference was much larger for unstable than for stable jobs.…”

“…This discrete distribution is computationally easier than continuous distributions. Moreover, it is very common in the literature on labour market transitions; see, for instance, Bover, Arellano and Bentolila (2002), Rebollo-Sanz (2012), Arranz et al (2010), or Bijwaard and Wahba (2014).…”

“…Indeed, Bover and Gómez (2004) investigate the determinants of exit rates 3 from unemployment to permanent and temporary jobs and find important differences between the two exit patterns. Arranz et al (2010) use a competing risk model to analyse the exit from unemployment to permanent jobs, temporary jobs, self-employment and inactivity. This distinction, however, may not be so informative anymore in the Spanish context.…”

Flexible Contracts and Human Capital Investments

“…Arranz et al (2010), for example, showed that temporary workers who became unemployed at the end of their temporary contract are more likely to exit unemployment through another temporary contract than through permanent employment. In the same vein De Graaf-Zijl et al (2010) found that although previous employment in a temporary job shortens unemployment spells, temporary workers do not have better prospects for finding a permanent job in the years after their unemployment.…”