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Salt marshes act as natural barriers that reduce wave energy during storm events and help protect coastal communities located in low-lying areas. This ecosystem can be an important asset for climate adaptation due to its particular capability of vertically accrete to adjust to long-term changes in water levels. Therefore, understanding marsh protection benefits thresholds in the face of sea-level rise (SLR) is important for planning future climate adaptation. In this context, the main goal of this manuscript is to examine how the storm protection benefits provided by salt marshes might evolve under SLR projections with different probability levels and emission pathways. In this study, a modeling framework that employs marsh migration predictions from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) as parameterization into a hydrodynamic and wave model (ADCIRC + SWAN) was utilized to explicitly represent wave attenuation by vegetation under storm surge conditions. SLAMM predictions indicate that the SLR scenario, a combination of probability level and emission pathways, plays a substantial role in determining future marsh migration or marsh area loss. For example, results based on the 50% probability, stabilized emissions scenario show an increase of 45% in the marsh area on Maryland’s Lower Eastern Shore by 2100, whereas Dorchester County alone could experience a 75% reduction in total salt marsh areas by 2100 under the 1% probability, growing emissions scenario. ADCIRC + SWAN results using SLAMM land cover and elevation outputs indicate that distinct temporal thresholds emerge where marsh extent sharply decreases and wave heights increase, especially after 2050, and exacerbates further after 2080. These findings can be utilized for guiding environmental policies and to aid informed decisions and actions in response to SLR-driven environmental changes.
Salt marshes act as natural barriers that reduce wave energy during storm events and help protect coastal communities located in low-lying areas. This ecosystem can be an important asset for climate adaptation due to its particular capability of vertically accrete to adjust to long-term changes in water levels. Therefore, understanding marsh protection benefits thresholds in the face of sea-level rise (SLR) is important for planning future climate adaptation. In this context, the main goal of this manuscript is to examine how the storm protection benefits provided by salt marshes might evolve under SLR projections with different probability levels and emission pathways. In this study, a modeling framework that employs marsh migration predictions from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) as parameterization into a hydrodynamic and wave model (ADCIRC + SWAN) was utilized to explicitly represent wave attenuation by vegetation under storm surge conditions. SLAMM predictions indicate that the SLR scenario, a combination of probability level and emission pathways, plays a substantial role in determining future marsh migration or marsh area loss. For example, results based on the 50% probability, stabilized emissions scenario show an increase of 45% in the marsh area on Maryland’s Lower Eastern Shore by 2100, whereas Dorchester County alone could experience a 75% reduction in total salt marsh areas by 2100 under the 1% probability, growing emissions scenario. ADCIRC + SWAN results using SLAMM land cover and elevation outputs indicate that distinct temporal thresholds emerge where marsh extent sharply decreases and wave heights increase, especially after 2050, and exacerbates further after 2080. These findings can be utilized for guiding environmental policies and to aid informed decisions and actions in response to SLR-driven environmental changes.
Green sea dykes, also known as ecosystem-based sea dykes, represent a novel type of coastal defense consisting of both traditional structural engineering and coastal ecosystems, designed to cope with the future trends of sea level rise and intensified storms. Here we focus on the mid-latitude mud coasts (eastern China in particular), which face the most prominent risks of storm surge, storm-induced giant waves, and shoreline erosion, and summarizes the scientific basis of green sea dykes and the current status of engineering practices. We show that the basic mechanisms of nearshore wave energy dissipation include bottom friction, sediment transport, and form drag. These explain the wave damping capacity of oyster reefs and salt marshes on mud coasts. In tidal flat environments, oyster growth increases frictional resistance and even causes wave breaking; the resuspension and transport of fine-grained sediments on salt marsh beds and the movement or resistance to hydrodynamic forcing of salt marsh vegetation stems effectively dissipate wave kinetic energy, and their efficiency increases with the elevation of the bed surface. Based on the wave damping capacity of oyster reefs and salt marshes on mud coasts, ecosystem-based sea dykes are being built in combination with traditional structured sea dykes. By utilizing natural tidal flats outside the dykes or implementing artificial modification projects, a certain scale of salt marshes and/or oyster reefs can be maintained, which serve to protect the sea dykes and enhance their wave resistance functions. From the perspective of system optimization, it is necessary to further improve the efficiency and sustainability of green sea dykes under constraints such as regional environment characteristics, ecosystem health, investment capacity, and ecological resilience. Related scientific issues include the theorization of the wave damping process of salt marshes, the niche and scale control of oyster reef and salt marsh ecosystems, the establishment of engineering standards and the design of the optimal form of sea dykes.
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