The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

Port, Ulrike; Brovkin, Victor; Claußen, Martin

doi:10.5194/esdd-3-485-2012

Cited by 8 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Using the TRIFFID DGVM, Huntingford et al () found often‐substantial differences in tropical carbon stocks between transient projections for 2100 under strong climate change and committed equilibrium stocks under climate and [CO 2 ] held constant at 2100 levels. Likewise, Port et al () simulated continued global uptake of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere using Max‐Planck‐Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) following stabilization of atmospheric radiative forcing from 2100 on. These changes in carbon storage resulted both from changes in carbon storage within existing ecosystems and from vegetation dynamics leading to a change in land‐cover type.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

et al. 2018

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The terrestrial biosphere shows substantial inertia in its response to environmental change. Hence, assessments of transient changes in ecosystem properties to 2100 do not capture the full magnitude of the response realized once ecosystems reach an effective equilibrium with the changed environmental boundary conditions. This equilibrium state can be termed the committed state, in contrast to a transient state in which the ecosystem is in disequilibrium. The difference in ecosystem properties between the transient and committed states represents the committed change yet to be realized. Here an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation model simulations was used to assess the changes in tree cover and carbon storage for a variety of committed states, relative to a preindustrial baseline, and to attribute the drivers of uncertainty. Using a subset of simulations, the committed changes in these variables post‐2100, assuming climate stabilization, were calculated. The results show large committed changes in tree cover and carbon storage, with model disparities driven by residence time in the tropics, and residence time and productivity in the boreal. Large changes remain ongoing well beyond the end of the 21st century. In boreal ecosystems, the simulated increase in vegetation carbon storage above preindustrial levels was 20–95 Pg C at 2 K of warming, and 45–201 Pg C at 5 K, of which 38–155 Pg C was due to expansion in tree cover. Reducing the large uncertainties in long‐term commitment and rate‐of‐change of terrestrial carbon uptake will be crucial for assessments of emissions budgets consistent with limiting climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

et al. 2018

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“…This suggests that vegetation enhances its water use efficiency with time due to rising CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere, similarly to what was reported in Port et al . []. Indeed, with increased CO 2 concentrations, vegetation can reduce the time during which the stomata are open, thus maintaining productivity while minimizing water loss.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As shown by Smith et al [2011], competition is important to model vegetation shifts and changing tree line which can have non-negligible effects on 2 m air temperature and precipitation through biophysical feedbacks, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Indeed, the simulation of competition among PFTs could result in a northward expansion of the tree cover in the high latitudes due to the warming trend, which would further reduce the albedo and lead to additional warming [O'ishi and Abe-Ouchi, 2009;Port et al, 2012;Loranty et al, 2014].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have been performed to assess the impact of vegetation dynamics on future climate using global climate models (GCMs) [e.g., Thompson et al ., ; Port et al ., ]. Based on their study on the influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change arising from doubled/quadrupled concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 , O ' ishi and Abe‐Ouchi [] suggest a warming enhancement by 10–30% globally and an amplification of climate sensitivity by 10%, mainly due to albedo changes associated with vegetation changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biosphere‐climate interactions in a changing climate over North America

Garnaud

Sushama

2015

JGR Atmospheres

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This study focuses on projected changes to vegetation characteristics and their interactions with the atmosphere under future climatic conditions over North America, using four transient climate change simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Here CRCM5 performs dynamical downscaling of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) simulated data, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. For each RCP, two CRCM5 simulations are performed-one with static vegetation phenology and the other with dynamic vegetation phenology-for the 1950-2100 period over North America. The dynamic vegetation model used here is the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. Results show that the extension of the growing season under future climatic conditions in the dynamic phenology simulations leads to higher annual vegetation productivity and biomass. In comparison with projected changes based on CRCM5 with static phenology, CRCM5 with phenology dynamics leads to an albedo-mediated warming enhancement across most of North America in spring. In summer, results suggest a warming enhancement in the northern latitudes and an attenuation of warming for more southern regions due to hydrological feedbacks. Furthermore, results suggest that vegetation enhances its water-use efficiency with rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Over southeastern United States, in the dynamic phenology simulation corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario, the adverse effects of the projected increase in temperatures and decrease in precipitation on vegetation dominate the CO 2 fertilization effect, leading to decreasing trends in productivity during the 2071-2100 period. This study thus clearly demonstrates that phenology dynamics modulate greenhouse gas-mediated warming through various biophysical feedbacks.

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“…Rather, forcing lags emerge where the transient vegetation state lags behind rates of change of environmental drivers (Bertrand et al, 2016). Quantifying these lags is crucial for our understanding of ecosystem dynamics because they imply that the observed vegetation state does not fully reflect prevailing environmental conditions and that ecosystems are committed to further changes even if environmental conditions stabilize (Jones et al, 2009;Port et al, 2012). We expect that the size of the forcing lag between equilibrium and transient vegetation states will be influenced by actual values of environmental conditions, the 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-415 Preprint.…”

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confidence: 99%

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions

Scheiter¹,

Moncrieff²,

Pfeiffer³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs for some RCP scenarios. Mismatches between the speed of ecological processes such as physiological adaptation, demographic shifts or migration, and the speed of changes in en- vironmental conditions imply lags between the transient vegetation state and the vegetation state expected under prevailing environmental conditions. Here, we used a dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM, to study lags between transient and committed vegetation in Africa under changing atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio. We hypothesized that lag size increases with more rapidly changing CO2 mixing ratio as opposed to slower changes in CO2, and that disturbance by fire further increases these lags. Our model results confirm these hypotheses, revealing lags between vegetation state and environmental conditions and enhanced lags in fire-driven systems. Biome states, carbon stored in vegetation and tree cover in Africa are most sensitive to changes in the CO2 mixing ratio under recent and near-future levels, between approximately 300 and 500&#8201;ppm. These results have important implications for vegetation modellers as well as for management and policy making. Lag effects implicate that vegetation will undergo substantial changes in distribution patterns, structure and carbon sequestration even if emissions of fossils fuels and other greenhouse gasses are reduced and the climate system stabilizes. We conclude that modelers need to account for lags in models and data used for model testing and that policy makers need to consider lagged responses and committed changes in the biosphere when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

Cited by 8 publications

References 29 publications

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

Biosphere‐climate interactions in a changing climate over North America

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions

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The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

Cited by 8 publications

References 29 publications

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

Biosphere‐climate interactions in a changing climate over North America

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; under recent and near-future CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; conditions

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African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions