The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

Port, Ulrike; Brovkin, Victor; Claußen, Martin

doi:10.5194/esd-3-233-2012

Cited by 33 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…A decrease from approximately 900 to 300 ppm during the Oligocene took approximately 10 million years (Beerling and Royer, 2011), which translates into an average rate of −6 × 10 −5 ppm per year. As the current rates of CO 2 change are likely unprecedented, no proxy analogues exist to deduce vegetation responses to the ongoing atmospheric and climatic changes (Prentice et al, 1993;Foster et al, 2017). Due to the coarse temporal resolution of many paleo-records, it is, however, still challenging to calculate rates at decadal or even finer temporal resolution for a direct comparison of past, present and future rates of change (but see Zeebe et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs for some Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The speed of ecological processes such as leaf physiology, demography or migration can differ from the speed of changes in environmental conditions. Such mismatches imply lags between the actual vegetation state and the vegetation state expected under prevailing environmental conditions. Here, we used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), to study lags between actual and expected vegetation in Africa under a changing atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio. We hypothesized that lag size increases with a more rapidly changing CO2 mixing ratio as opposed to slower changes in CO2 and that disturbance by fire further increases lag size. Our model results confirm these hypotheses, revealing lags between vegetation state and environmental conditions and enhanced lags in fire-driven systems. Biome states, carbon stored in vegetation and tree cover in Africa are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future levels. When averaged across all biomes and simulations with and without fire, times to reach an equilibrium vegetation state increase from approximately 242 years for 200 ppm to 898 years for 1000 ppm. These results have important implications for vegetation modellers and for policy making. Lag effects imply that vegetation will undergo substantial changes in distribution patterns, structure and carbon sequestration even if emissions of fossils fuels and other greenhouse gasses are reduced and the climate system stabilizes. We conclude that modelers need to account for lag effects in models and in data used for model testing. Policy makers need to consider lagged responses and committed changes in the biosphere when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions

et al. 2020

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“…Using the TRIFFID DGVM, Huntingford et al (2013) found often-substantial differences in tropical carbon stocks between transient projections for 2100 under strong climate change and committed equilibrium stocks under climate and [CO 2 ] held constant at 2100 levels. Likewise, Port et al (2012) simulated continued global uptake of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere using Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) following stabilization of atmospheric radiative forcing from 2100 on. These changes in carbon storage resulted both from changes in carbon storage within existing ecosystems and from vegetation dynamics leading to a change in landcover type.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

et al. 2018

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The terrestrial biosphere shows substantial inertia in its response to environmental change. Hence, assessments of transient changes in ecosystem properties to 2100 do not capture the full magnitude of the response realized once ecosystems reach an effective equilibrium with the changed environmental boundary conditions. This equilibrium state can be termed the committed state, in contrast to a transient state in which the ecosystem is in disequilibrium. The difference in ecosystem properties between the transient and committed states represents the committed change yet to be realized. Here an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation model simulations was used to assess the changes in tree cover and carbon storage for a variety of committed states, relative to a preindustrial baseline, and to attribute the drivers of uncertainty. Using a subset of simulations, the committed changes in these variables post‐2100, assuming climate stabilization, were calculated. The results show large committed changes in tree cover and carbon storage, with model disparities driven by residence time in the tropics, and residence time and productivity in the boreal. Large changes remain ongoing well beyond the end of the 21st century. In boreal ecosystems, the simulated increase in vegetation carbon storage above preindustrial levels was 20–95 Pg C at 2 K of warming, and 45–201 Pg C at 5 K, of which 38–155 Pg C was due to expansion in tree cover. Reducing the large uncertainties in long‐term commitment and rate‐of‐change of terrestrial carbon uptake will be crucial for assessments of emissions budgets consistent with limiting climate change.

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“…2). The boundary between tropical trees and extra-tropical trees is prescribed based on the climatic limits of tropical trees computed from off-line simulations by Heinemann et al (2009) for the Eocene climate and by Port et al (2012) for the pre-industrial climate. Tropical trees have a LAI of 7 and a roughness length of 2 m. Extra-tropical trees have a LAI of 5 and a roughness length of 1 m. To facilitate comparison between the Eocene and the pre-industrial simulations, we ignore that the climatic requirements for tropical trees differ between the Eocene and the pre-industrial case.…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All preindustrial simulations start from the equilibrium climate by Port et al (2012), whose pre-industrial simulation ran for 1000 years, with dynamic vegetation cover and an atmospheric CO 2 concentration of about 280 ppm. In the first time step, we replace the mixed pre-industrial vegetation cover with dark desert, bright desert, and forests in the dark desert world, bright desert world, and forest world simulation, respectively.…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates – a sensitivity study

2016

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Abstract.We evaluate the radiative forcing of forests and the feedbacks triggered by forests in a warm, basically ice-free climate and in a cool climate with permanent high-latitude ice cover using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. As a paradigm for a warm climate, we choose the early Eocene, some 54 to 52 million years ago, and for the cool climate, the pre-industrial climate, respectively. To isolate firstorder effects, we compare idealised simulations in which all continents are covered either by dense forests or by deserts with either bright or dark soil. In comparison with desert continents covered by bright soil, forested continents warm the planet for the early Eocene climate and for pre-industrial conditions. The warming can be attributed to different feedback processes, though. The lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback is stronger for the early Eocene climate than for the pre-industrial climate, but strong and negative cloud-related feedbacks nearly outweigh the positive lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback for the early Eocene climate. Subsequently, global mean warming by forests is weaker for the early Eocene climate than for pre-industrial conditions. Sea-ice related feedbacks are weak for the almost ice-free climate of the early Eocene, thereby leading to a weaker high-latitude warming by forests than for pre-industrial conditions. When the land is covered with dark soils, and hence, albedo differences between forests and soil are small, forests cool the early Eocene climate more than the preindustrial climate because the lapse-rate and water-vapour feedbacks are stronger for the early Eocene climate. Cloud-related feedbacks are equally strong in both climates. We conclude that radiative forcing by forests varies little with the climate state, while most subsequent feedbacks depend on the climate state.

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The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

Cited by 33 publications

References 30 publications

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates – a sensitivity study

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The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

Cited by 33 publications

References 30 publications

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; under recent and near-future CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; conditions

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; under recent and near-future CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; conditions

A Large Committed Long‐Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates – a sensitivity study

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African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions