The influence of weather on local geographical patterns of police calls for service

Abstract

Abstract. The effect of weather elements on the incidence of different types of crime has been the focus of a number of research studies. However, the detailed geographical dimension of this relationship has been largely ignored. The aim of this paper is to broaden the research on weather and crime to consider the effect of weather parameters on the spatial arrangement of crime within an urban area of the UK. A novel combination of techniques that are capable of both evaluating statistically and visualising geographically the effect of weather variables on the incidence of one type of crime, namely calls for police service for disorder or disturbances, is presented. These techniques are examined in relation to the theories that have traditionally been put forward to explain such trends. We conclude that, in our study area, both temperature and humidity exert significant effects on the spatial patterning of incidents of disorder or disturbances. Rainfall, wind speed, and wind direction were found not to have a significant effect for this type of call for service. More research is needed to see how transferable these findings are to other geographical areas with different climatic regimes.

Testing time-sensitive influences of weather on street robbery

“…regular precipitation and seldom snowfall). The null effect of rain mirrors findings by other UK research (Field 1992;Brunsdon et al 2009). Whilst the magnitudes of the effects of temperature and wind speed in model 1 appear small, it should be noted that these conditions have a considerable rangefor example an increase of one km per hour in wind speed overall decreases robbery by 1.1 per cent.…”

“…Using data from one weather station only approximates the weather across the study area, and as weather is known to vary enormously at the localised level (see Brunsdon et al 2009) it is certainly the case that there is some error in our measurements of weather. Further to this, relying on police-recorded data necessarily excludes unreported crimes; however this is true of all research using police data.…”

“…Numerous scholars have postulated that people are more likely to stay indoors in adverse weather and be outdoors when weather is pleasant (Brunsdon et al 2009;Hipp et al 2004;Lab & Hirschel 1988;LeBeau & Corcoran 1990;, and this is borne out by empirical findings in transport studies and public health (Böcker et al 2013;Horanont et al 2013;Tucker & Gilliland 2007). Outdoor activities usually peak in the summer months in temperate climates when the days are longer, whereas regions with harsh weather conditions in winter have a population used to staying at home for prolonged periods.…”

The effect of altitude and slope on the spatial patterning of burglary

“…Other features of physical geography and their relationship with crime and disorder have been the subject of investigations by researchers for well over a century. For example, a large and growing body of literature has investigated the relationship between weather and crime (see Baumer & Wright, 1996;Brunsdon, Corcoran, Higgs, & Ware, 2009;Ceccato, 2005;Cohn & Rotton, 2000;Heller & 3 Markland, 1970). Despite some contradictions, researchers have found that crime rates generally display a seasonal pattern with property crimes typically peaking in winter, and crimes against the person peaking in the hot months of summer (Landau & Fridman, 1993;Van Koppen & Jansen, 1999).…”

The Periodicity of Violent and Property Crime in Tshwane, South Africa

“…RA theory suggests that individuals generally follow fairly strict and regimented routines -daily, weekly, monthly or seasonal, and even yearly routines (Brunsdon, Corcoran, Higgs, & Ware, 2009). Essentially, the same periodicities that are found throughout nature and in society as a whole also exist in individual human behavior.…”