The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand

Abstract

The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity of power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture the influence of meteorological variability on the European energy sector. For each weather regime, the associated changes to wintertime-mean and extreme-wind and solar power production, temperature-driven energy demand and energy shortfall (residual load) are explored. Days with a blocked circulation pattern, i.e. the 'Scandinavian Blocking' and 'North Atlantic Oscillation negative' regimes, on average have lower than normal renewable power production, higher than normal energy demand and therefore, higher than normal energy shortfall. These average effects hide large variability of energy parameters within each weather regime. Though the risk of extreme high energy shortfall events increases in the two blocked regimes (by a factor of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), it is shown that such events occur in all regimes. Extreme high energy shortfall events are the result of rare circulation types and smaller-scale features, rather than extreme magnitudes of common large-scale circulation types. In fact, these events resemble each other more strongly than their respective weather regime mean pattern. For (sub-) seasonal forecasting applications weather regimes may be of use for the energy sector. At shorter lead times or for more detailed system analyses, their ineffectiveness at characterising extreme events limits their potential.

Implications of Winter NAO Flavors on Present and Future European Climate

“…Our approach in this paper is that of avoiding the use of a point-based NAO index, but instead, defining different spatial flavors, according to the positions that the NAO centers of action occupy each time, with the use of SOMs. As underlined in recent impact-related studies, (climate-streamflow links in Steirou et al [43]; northern European sea level in Chafik et al [44]; influence of weather regimes on the energy sector in van der Wiel et al [45]), the need for a non-station based index is pronounced in order to fully capture the spatial configuration of the NAO mode. Studies in the past have focused on defining different flavors of ENSO [46] or of Indian Ocean Dipole events [47] with SOMs, or with complex climate networks [48].…”

The role of the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe

“…Skilful forecasts of European winter weather are of great importance for several weather-dependent sectors, such as the health (Charlton-Perez et al, 2021) or renewable energy sector (Van Der Wiel et al, 2019;Büeler et al, 2020) allowing them to prepare and to take early actions. However, predictions on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e.…”

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

“…The threat of climate change is prompting action across the globe with many countries, including Mexico, investing in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. To be able to forecast the conditions for optimum wind power production for a region, it is useful to characterize the dominant weather patterns that drive the near-surface winds across the country (van der Wiel et al, 2019). However, a consensus is yet to be met regarding the weather patterns that drive wind variability across Mexico.…”