The influences of climate and hydrology on population dynamics of waterbirds in the lower Murrumbidgee River floodplains in Southeast Australia: Implications for environmental water management

Wen, Lei; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saintilan, Neil; Ling, Joanne

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.016

Cited by 55 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…In the subtropical monsoon system of Poyang Lake, waterbird abundance fluctuated considerably, as has been described for other systems such as coastal lagoons (Canepuccia et al ., ), semi‐arid inland floodplains (Wen et al ., ) and mountain lakes (Mascitti & Bonaventura, ). Our analysis has shown that the variation of wintering waterbird abundance in PLNNR was clearly linked to a number of primary abiotic factors, including lake water level, which is the focus of this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We compared the distribution of the annual time series of waterbird abundance by fitting two probability distribution functions (PDF), namely Poisson and negative binomial. Poisson and negative binomial are the two most common distributions for species count data in ecology (Bolker et al ., ; Wen et al ., ). The results (data not shown in this study) indicated that the negative binomial distribution was a better choice.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimising hydrological conditions to sustain wintering waterbird populations in Poyang Lake National Natural Reserve: implications for dam operations

et al. 2013

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1. Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and is of global importance for the conservation of migratory waterbirds of the East Asian -Australasian Flyway. Recent dam construction on the Yangtze River and its tributaries for agriculture and hydroelectric power has affected the hydrological regimes in downstream lakes. The Three Gorges Dam changed the hydrological regime of downstream lakes by reducing wet season flooding and expanding water storage in the dry season. 2. Despite the critical role of Poyang Lake in regional and global biodiversity conservation and the potential adverse ecological impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on downstream lakes, there have been few studies of the hydrological requirements of wintering waterbirds in the middle Yangtze floodplains. 3. We assembled a predictor matrix including three hydrological variables (annual inflow, maximum water level in high water season or MaxWL and minimum water level in low water season or MinWL) and two climatic variables (annual rainfall and biological cumulative temperature or BioT). Using the predictor matrix and annual waterbird census, we built group-specific generalised additive models (GAM) to investigate how waterbird population variations were related to climatic and hydrological factors in the Poyang Lake National Natural Reserve. We then used the modelled predictor-response curves to identify the optimal lake water levels for each waterbird group. 4. The community-level model selected group and the group-varying-coefficient term of BioT, Inflow and MaxWL as explanatory variables. At group level, tuber eaters and sedge foragers responded positively to BioT and MinWL. Seed eaters, invertebrate eaters and fish eaters responded positively to Inflow and negatively to MaxWL and MinWL. Based on the modelled predictor-response curves, we propose the following optimal water level ranges for Poyang Lake wintering waterbird conservation: a) maximum high water season level should be less than 17.4 m; and b) minimum low water level should be between 8.2 m and 8.8 m.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimising hydrological conditions to sustain wintering waterbird populations in Poyang Lake National Natural Reserve: implications for dam operations

et al. 2013

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“…Recently, additional methodological developments and the availability of implemented computer programs made GAMs increasingly popular in practical research, mainly in the public health and epidemiology fields (Bayentin et al 2010;Cans and Lavergne 1995;Leitte et al 2009;Rocklöv and Forsberg 2008;Vieira et al 2009) and in environmental studies (Borchers et al 1997;Wen et al 2011;Wood and Augustin 2002). In the field of meteorology, GAMs were used to model the effect of traffic and meteorology on air quality (Bertaccini et al 2012), to predict air temperature from satellite surface temperatures (Kloog et al 2012), and to model mean temperature in mountainous regions (Guan et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Frequency Analysis at Ungauged Sites with the Generalized Additive Model

Chebana

Charron²,

Ouarda

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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The log-linear regression model is one of the most commonly used models to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites within the regional frequency analysis (RFA) framework. However, hydrological processes are naturally complex in several aspects including nonlinearity. The aim of the present paper is to take into account this nonlinearity by introducing the generalized additive model (GAM) in the estimation step of RFA. A neighborhood approach using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to delineate homogenous regions. GAMs possess a number of advantages such as flexibility in shapes of the relationships as well as the distribution of the output variable. The regional model is applied on a dataset of 151 hydrometrical stations located in the province of Québec, Canada. A stepwise procedure is employed to select the appropriate physiometeorological variables. A comparison is performed based on different elements (regional model, variable selection, and delineation). Results indicate that models using GAM outperform models using the log-linear regression as well as other methods applied to this dataset. In addition, GAM is flexible and allows for the inclusion and presentation of nonlinear effects of explanatory variables, in particular, basin area effect (scale). Another finding is the reduced effect of CCA delineation when combined with GAM.

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“…Several studies have demonstrated that environmental variables such as wetland hydrology and landscape can alter waterbird abundance in different ways (Alexander & Hepp, 2014;Brandolin & Blendinger, 2016;Tavares, Guadagnin, de Moura, Siciliano, & Merico, 2015;Wen, Rogers, Saintilan, & Ling, 2011). For example, fluctuations in water depth influence the physical condition of waterbird habitats (e.g., the establishment of mudflats), affect food availability, and prey vulnerability (Bellio & Kingsford, 2013;Lantz, Gawlik, & Cook, 2011;Timmermans, Badzinski, & Ingram, 2008;Y.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing Landscapes and Declining Populations of Resident Waterbirds: A 12-Year Study in Bung Boraphet Wetland, Thailand

Haq

Eiamampai²,

Ngoprasert

et al. 2018

Tropical Conservation Science

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Changes in wetland environments can alter the dynamics of waterbird populations. We investigated the effects of hydrological and landscape variables on the abundance of resident waterbirds (ducks, fish-eaters, large waders, small waders, and vegetation gleaners) from 2003 to 2014 in Bung Boraphet, Thailand's largest freshwater wetland. Generalized linear mixed models were used to determine the effects of environmental variables on waterbird numbers, and generalized additive mixed models were used to identify the threshold for each effect. The results revealed that the population of all waterbirds declined by 27% from 2003 to 2014 with highest decline of 56% in ducks. Increasing water depth was negatively correlated with the abundance of small waders and vegetation gleaners. Higher concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the water increased the abundance of fish-eaters, while marshy areas were positively associated with the abundance of ducks, large waders, and vegetation gleaners. The abundance of fish-eaters, large waders, and small waders were negatively associated with the spatial area of waterbodies. Expanding human settlements decreased the abundance of vegetation gleaners, while vegetation infested by Mimosa pigra decreased the abundance of large waders. The study concludes that the maintenance of an optimal water depth and quality, preservation of critical marsh habitats, eradication of invasive species, and restrictions on new human settlements adjacent to wetlands are all necessary to conserve resident waterbird populations. Validating these findings in additional research sites is recommended before applying it to a broader landscape level.

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The influences of climate and hydrology on population dynamics of waterbirds in the lower Murrumbidgee River floodplains in Southeast Australia: Implications for environmental water management

Cited by 55 publications

References 41 publications

Optimising hydrological conditions to sustain wintering waterbird populations in Poyang Lake National Natural Reserve: implications for dam operations

Optimising hydrological conditions to sustain wintering waterbird populations in Poyang Lake National Natural Reserve: implications for dam operations

Regional Frequency Analysis at Ungauged Sites with the Generalized Additive Model

Changing Landscapes and Declining Populations of Resident Waterbirds: A 12-Year Study in Bung Boraphet Wetland, Thailand

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