Aimed at the problem that it's difficult to evaluate oppressive jamming effectiveness in the combat of electronic countermeasure, an evaluation method of jamming effectiveness based on radar detection probability was proposed. Combined with radar distance formula and jamming equation, the models of radar detection probability with jamming and without jamming were established respectively. After imitating the combat scenarios of self-defense jamming and support jamming, setting radar parameters and jammer parameters, the changes of radar detection probability of three targets with different radar cross section (RCS) were simulated and analyzed in the pattern of oppressive jamming. The results show that oppressive jamming could reduce radar detection distance and detection probability, decline radar detection performance largely.