The Intergenerational Mortality Trade‐off of Covid‐19 Lockdown Policies

Abstract

In lower‐income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID‐19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible‐infected‐recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country‐group‐specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low‐income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.

A Perspective towards Multi-Hazard Resilient Systems: Natural Hazards and Pandemics

“…This may adversely affect individual responses to a natural hazard, and their decisions during a pandemic [130]. Such public health measures may have negative consequences for other elements of social health and physical health [131]. For instance, Ravindran and Shah [132] document how social distancing measures due to COVID-19 in India have coincided with a "shadow pandemic" of increased domestic violence.…”

Facing displacement and a global pandemic: evidence from a fragile state

“…2 Learning about the experience of LMICs and of their most vulnerable populations in the midst of the pandemic is essential to conceive policy interventions that are tailored to their specific needs and challenges [Orcutt et al (2020)]. Extrapolating from the experience of wealthier countries, instead, may lead to the implementation of measures that are ineffective and even self-defeating [Ma et al (2021), Miguel and Mobarak (2021)]. The effects of COVID-19 are likely to be even more negative in conflict-affected countries where the pandemic shock adds to, and interacts with, pre-existing fragilities.…”

ética global de la IA en la recuperación del COVID-19: revisión narrativa y análisis ético del Contrato Social Personalista de la optimización de la eficacia de la salud pública y la equidad social impulsada por la IA

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