The International Rate of Discontinuance of Some Old Products

Fenech, Javier Palacios; Longford, Nick Tibor

doi:10.1080/08911762.2013.850142

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…And only one study has examined discontinuance in an international context. Palacios Fenech and Longford () analyze the international rate of discontinuance of some products by using a Mansfield model. Common to all these studies is the psychological process by which a consumer makes a break from his or her current use of a product due to the appeal of new one.…”

Section: Theory Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a stylized form, the phenomenon of discontinuance is similar but opposite to the phenomenon of adoption (Rogers, ). In a noncumulative form, period‐by‐period discontinuance follows an inverted bell shape that can be categorized by five different types of discontinuers (Palacios Fenech and Longford, ). Yet the current study argues that stages of the complete diffusion pattern are generally separated by four key turning points: takeoff, peak, dive, and landing (Figure ).…”

Section: Theory Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fourth, the extant literature has either focused entirely on the takeoff of the new product (e.g., Agarwal and Bayus, ; Golder and Tellis, ) or has modeled the smooth diffusion of intergenerational products on the same technological platform (Jiang and Jain, ; Norton and Bass, , ). Only a few studies have focused on the discontinuance of current products (e.g., Palacios Fenech and Longford, ). None of these studies modeled the turning points in the disruption of a current product by a new product.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Dive and Disruption of Successful Current Products: Measures, Global Patterns, and Predictive Model

Fenech¹,

Tellis²

2014

J of Product Innov Manag

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This study examines the diffusion of pairs of substitute products (current versus new) in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. The study finds that current products reach a peak at about 56% of market penetration. Subsequently, they suffer a dramatic decrease in penetration of 286%, which we call the dive. A dive occurs in 96% of current products in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. On average, the time from takeoff of new product to a peak in penetration of the current product is 6.6 years and to the dive of the current product is 8.4 years. The total time-to-dive includes a hidden discontinuance period (10.4 years), from the introduction of the new product to the peak of the current product, plus an overt time-to-dive (1.8 years), from the peak to the dive of the current product. The hidden discontinuance period and the overt time-to-dive are shorter, and the dive is steeper in emerging markets than in developed ones. A discrete-time hazard model shows that the introduction of the new product, prior penetration of the current product, the population density of the country, and prior dives in other countries predict intercountry the hazard of a peak. Subsequently, takeoff of the new product, relative percentage growth in penetration of the current product prior to a peak, the length of the hidden discontinuance period, and prior dives in other countries predict the hazard of a dive. The models can predict the occurrence of a peak with true positive rate of 62% and a true negative rate of 87%, and a dive with a true positive rate of 82% and a true negative rate of 61%.

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Section: Theory Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theory Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Dive and Disruption of Successful Current Products: Measures, Global Patterns, and Predictive Model

Fenech¹,

Tellis²

2014

J of Product Innov Manag

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…And only one study has examined discontinuance in an international context. Palacios Fenech and Longford (2014) analyze the international rate of discontinuance of some products by using a Mansfield model. Common to all these studies is the psychological process by which a consumer makes a break from his or her current use of a product due to the appeal of new one.…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a stylized form, the phenomenon of discontinuance is similar but opposite to the phenomenon of adoption (Rogers, 2004). In a noncumulative form, period-byperiod discontinuance follows an inverted bell shape that can be categorized by five different types of discontinuers 1 (Palacios Fenech and Longford, 2014). Yet the current study argues that stages of the complete diffusion pattern are generally separated by four key turning points: takeoff, peak, dive, and landing ( Figure 1).…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%