The investment in the transportation system: Analytical technologies as an important tool for key factors forecasting

Abstract

This paper takes a new look at the economic potential of investment decisions to optimize the transport system by minimizing the organizational and operational costs of cargo routing. We present a methodology of scenario forecasting based on statistical methods. Its application makes it possible to achieve a result using the optimal trend function. At the same time, correcting additive and multiplicative parameters allows gaining a given accuracy. The precision and the accuracy of the forecasting model were checked by both additional resulting indicators and the distribution of the model residuals. The simulated scenario forecast of freight turnover was used to formulate the conditions of the transport problem within a certain transport system, limited infrastructure, and the capabilities of a particular carrier. The solution to the transport problem with dynamic adjustment of restrictions determined the possibility of altering the number of routes for the transport work plan. Thus, the dynamics of transportation costs with a certain cargo turnover in various scenarios and an adjustable number of routes with changing restrictions on the throughput and carrying capacity of the transport system and a specific transport market entity will have a significant impact on the economic efficiency of the transportation. The findings of the study demonstrated a need for investment analysis of the possible removing some restrictions on throughput and carrying capacity in a certain economic situation, taking into account the development potential of both an entity and the transport system in general.