The Kentucky SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

Sánchez-Romero, Luz María; Yuan, Zhe; Li, Yameng; Levy, David T.

doi:10.34172/ijhpm.2020.187

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Notably, the SimSmoke model has been adapted to Arizona, California, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan and Minnesota. 4,[65][66][67][68][69][70] While direct comparisons of results among studies are not possible due to differing time periods and policy scenarios, the general magnitude of results is consistent with our findings. Other simulation models have assessed state tobacco policy in California and Minnesota, 44,71,72 and econometric models have been used to assess tobacco policy in Arizona, California and Florida.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Maciosek,

Donovan,

LaFrance

et al. 2023

Tob Use Insights

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Introduction This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in “Tobacco Nation,” a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies. Methods We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population. Results Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts. Conclusions The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents’ wishes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Maciosek,

Donovan,

LaFrance

et al. 2023

Tob Use Insights

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“…Tobacco control is a part of the SimSmoke program, a widely adopted strategy worldwide and one of the main goals of which is smoking cessation [4][5][6][7]. Smoking cessation is also an important public health policy particularly in low-and middle-income countries and in geographical regions where around 80% of tobacco consumers live and negative effects of this habit are more evident [2,3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applicability of machine learning algorithm to predict the therapeutic intervention success in Brazilian smokers

Massago,

Iora

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Smoking cessation is an important public health policy worldwide. However, as far as we know, there is a lack of screening of variables related to the success of therapeutic intervention (STI) in Brazilian smokers by machine learning (ML) algorithms. To address this gap in the literature, we evaluated the ability of eight ML algorithms to correctly predict the STI in Brazilian smokers who were treated at a smoking cessation program in Brazil between 2006 and 2017. The dataset was composed of 12 variables and the efficacies of the algorithms were measured by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We plotted a decision tree flowchart and also measured the odds ratio (OR) between each independent variable and the outcome, and the importance of the variable for the best model based on PPV. The mean global values for the metrics described above were, respectively, 0.675±0.028, 0.803±0.078, 0.485±0.146, 0.705±0.035 and 0.680±0.033. Supporting vector machines performed the best algorithm with a PPV of 0.726±0.031. Smoking cessation drug use was the roof of decision tree with OR of 4.42 and importance of variable of 100.00. Increase in the number of relapses also promoted a positive outcome, while higher consumption of cigarettes resulted in the opposite. In summary, the best model predicted 72.6% of positive outcomes correctly. Smoking cessation drug use and higher number of relapses contributed to quit smoking, while higher consumption of cigarettes showed the opposite effect. There are important strategies to reduce the number of smokers and increase STI by increasing services and drug treatment for smokers.

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“…Tobacco tax simulation models including SimSmoke, the WHO Tax Simulation Model and the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation (TETSiM) model have been applied to many countries worldwide, including in the Caribbean,3 China,4 West Africa5 and high-income settings 6 7. These models provide evidence on the potential impact of tax increases on government revenue, smoking cessation and public health outcomes, and provide a powerful tool with which to engage policy makers and empower public health advocates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study

Jawad

Awawda²,

Abla³

et al. 2022

Tob Control

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IntroductionDespite the high prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean region, evidence supporting its fiscal measures is limited. We modelled the impact of waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine.MethodsWe developed a simulation model using country-specific and market share-specific price, consumption and price elasticity data from WHO, UN Comtrade and nationally representative surveys. We modelled increases to specific excise taxes to meet a 35.9% tax burden on 20 g of waterpipe tobacco in Lebanon and Jordan, in line with the global average, and to double government revenues from excise duties in Palestine, which has surpassed this average.ResultsSpecific excise tax was raised by $1.14 ($0.18–$1.32) in Jordan, $2.41 ($0.03–$2.44) in Lebanon (alongside removal ofad valoremtaxes) and $2.39 ($1.72–$4.11) in Palestine per 20 g of waterpipe tobacco. Government revenue increased by $126.3 million in Jordan, $53.8 million in Lebanon and $162.4 million in Palestine while waterpipes smoked decreased by 32.4% in Jordan, 71.0% in Lebanon and 16.3% in Palestine. The corresponding numbers of premature deaths averted annually were approximately 162 000; 1 000 000; and 52 000.DiscussionIncreases in waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes substantially reduce smoking and increase government revenue and averted premature deaths in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. This has positive implications for both public health and financing and should be considered a policy priority.

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The Kentucky SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

Cited by 4 publications

References 56 publications

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Applicability of machine learning algorithm to predict the therapeutic intervention success in Brazilian smokers

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study

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