“…And there is a general geological experience that the total amounts of additional reserves and resources are increasing non-linearly and disproportionately high with lower ore grades. For frequently in nature observed logarithmic grade distributions the following applies (Lasky’s rule): A linear decrease in grade is accompanied by an above-linear (non-linear) increase in cumulative tonnage of the ore (DeYoung 1981 ). Fig.…”
Section: Concerns the Normative And The Realmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Mining companies want to keep a balance between reserves and production for planning purposes. Besides extension of known and discoveries of totally new deposits orebodies by exploration there are two additional effects which help to keep the balance between reserves and production: (1) In case of commodity prices increase, the cut-off grade of the mining operations can be lowered, thereby lowering the average grade with the consequence of increase of tonnage as just described (DeYoung 1981 ; Lasky 1950b ; The Bureau of Mines 1974 ). There is a rule of thumb in practice that halving the cut-off grade will increase the ore tonnes by the factor of 4 and the contained metal by the factor of 2 (Schodde 2019 ).…”
Section: Concerns the Normative And The Realmentioning
There is increasing demand for science to contribute to solving societal problems (solutionism). Thereby, scientists may become normative activists for solving certain problems (advocacy). When doing this, they may insufficiently differentiate between scientific and political modes of reasoning and validation (de-differentiationism), which is sometimes linked to questionable forms of utilizing the force of facts (German: Faktengewalt). Scientific findings are simplified and communicated in such a way that they acquire a status as unfalsifiable and absolutely true (truth to power). This becomes critical if the consistency and validation of the findings are questionable and scientific models underlying science activists’ actions are doubtful, oversimplified, or incorrect. Herein, we exemplarily elaborate how the integrity of science is endangered by normative solutionist and sociopolitically driven transition management and present mineral scarcity claims that ignore that reserves or resources are dynamic geotechnological-socioeconomic entities. We present the main mineral scarcity models and their fallacious assumptions. We then discuss the phosphorus scarcity fallacy, which is of particular interest as phosphorus is non-substitutable and half of all current food production depends on fertilizers (and thus phosphorus). We show that phosphorus scarcity claims are based on integrating basic geoeconomic knowledge and discuss cognitive and epistemological barriers and motivational and sociopolitical drivers promoting the scarcity fallacy, which affects high-level public media. This may induce unsustainable environmental action. Scientists as honest knowledge brokers should communicate the strengths but also the constraints and limits of scientific modeling and of applying it in reality.
“…And there is a general geological experience that the total amounts of additional reserves and resources are increasing non-linearly and disproportionately high with lower ore grades. For frequently in nature observed logarithmic grade distributions the following applies (Lasky’s rule): A linear decrease in grade is accompanied by an above-linear (non-linear) increase in cumulative tonnage of the ore (DeYoung 1981 ). Fig.…”
Section: Concerns the Normative And The Realmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Mining companies want to keep a balance between reserves and production for planning purposes. Besides extension of known and discoveries of totally new deposits orebodies by exploration there are two additional effects which help to keep the balance between reserves and production: (1) In case of commodity prices increase, the cut-off grade of the mining operations can be lowered, thereby lowering the average grade with the consequence of increase of tonnage as just described (DeYoung 1981 ; Lasky 1950b ; The Bureau of Mines 1974 ). There is a rule of thumb in practice that halving the cut-off grade will increase the ore tonnes by the factor of 4 and the contained metal by the factor of 2 (Schodde 2019 ).…”
Section: Concerns the Normative And The Realmentioning
There is increasing demand for science to contribute to solving societal problems (solutionism). Thereby, scientists may become normative activists for solving certain problems (advocacy). When doing this, they may insufficiently differentiate between scientific and political modes of reasoning and validation (de-differentiationism), which is sometimes linked to questionable forms of utilizing the force of facts (German: Faktengewalt). Scientific findings are simplified and communicated in such a way that they acquire a status as unfalsifiable and absolutely true (truth to power). This becomes critical if the consistency and validation of the findings are questionable and scientific models underlying science activists’ actions are doubtful, oversimplified, or incorrect. Herein, we exemplarily elaborate how the integrity of science is endangered by normative solutionist and sociopolitically driven transition management and present mineral scarcity claims that ignore that reserves or resources are dynamic geotechnological-socioeconomic entities. We present the main mineral scarcity models and their fallacious assumptions. We then discuss the phosphorus scarcity fallacy, which is of particular interest as phosphorus is non-substitutable and half of all current food production depends on fertilizers (and thus phosphorus). We show that phosphorus scarcity claims are based on integrating basic geoeconomic knowledge and discuss cognitive and epistemological barriers and motivational and sociopolitical drivers promoting the scarcity fallacy, which affects high-level public media. This may induce unsustainable environmental action. Scientists as honest knowledge brokers should communicate the strengths but also the constraints and limits of scientific modeling and of applying it in reality.
“…For a log-normal distribution Samuel Lasky discovered a rule ("Lasky's Law") that the relationship between the cut-off grade and the average grade above cut-off is linear and that a linear decrease in grade is followed by a logarithmic increase in the cumulative tonnage of ore [45][46][47]. It can be observed that much geological and biological data are log-normally distributed [48].…”
Abstract:The first stage of the circular economy, mining, is examined from the perspective of sustainability. The authors discuss how to maximize the use of phosphate rock, a primary commodity. To attract investment capital in a market economy system, a mine has to operate profitably, i.e., its lifetime must be optimized under economic conditions, for example, according to Taylor's Rule. From a sustainability perspective, however, the lifetime should extend as long as possible and the grades mined be as low as possible. The authors examine methods for optimizing a mine's lifetime under economic conditions according to practical experience and learning effects to optimize exploration and exploitation. With the condition of sustainability, a recently developed concept of cut-off grade for a layered phosphate deposit is examined and considerations for prolonging a mine's lifetime are discussed. As there are big losses from the current and potential future value chains above and below the current cut-off grade, we argue that the losses and use efficiency of phosphorus are key parts of a circular economy.
“…In fact, physical availability is predicted to increase, as with grade (metal content) falling arithmetically, the volume of the resource base is set to expand geometrically (Lasky 1950). However, the validity of this postulate was questioned later (De Young 1981).…”
Section: Mineral Resources and Impacts Of Depletionmentioning
Technological advancements dictate the productivity growth in all industries, including extractive ones. In the peculiar case of metallic mineral industries, this growth is also impacted by the natural variation in the metal content and chemical composition of the ore input, in the course of cumulative extraction and depletion of resources. Through a disaggregated treatment of productivity data achieved by using the input-output data on subprocesses of copper production and correlating them with input characteristics (ore grade), this study identifies and evaluates the impacts of the periodic changes in the natural input, as well as those of the technological progress, while reasonably controlling the influence of the other unrelated factors. This provides an objective assessment of the manner and extent of mitigation of the impact of the depletion-driven changes in the natural inputs of the said industry, through technological advancements. It reveals that the continuous and incremental developments in technology, successfully offset the detrimental effects of depletion on the copper sector productivity, often aided by the geological characteristics that changed to the miners' advantage. However, the impact of depletion stands to outweigh the gains from innovative technologies, as soon as the ores breach a minimum threshold level of purity or chemistry. This study thus establishes the usefulness of productivity studies in estimating the impacts of depletion that may not proceed in strictly sequential and uni-directional manner. More importantly, it shows that the impacts are neither uniform nor linear and are not always detrimental to productivity growth. Though the study is primarily based on copper industry, the findings hold relevance for other metal industries too.
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