Pose estimation of objects in real scenes is critically important for biological and machine visual systems, but little is known of how humans infer 3D poses from 2D retinal images. We show unexpectedly remarkable agreement in the 3D poses different observers estimate from pictures. We further show that all observers apply the same inferential rule from all viewpoints, utilizing the geometrically derived back-transform from retinal images to actual 3D scenes. Pose estimations are altered by a fronto-parallel bias, and by image distortions that appear to tilt the ground plane. We used pictures of single sticks or pairs of joined sticks taken from different camera angles. Observers viewed these from five directions, and matched the perceived pose of each stick by rotating an arrow on a horizontal touchscreen. The projection of each 3D stick to the 2D picture, and then onto the retina, is described by an invertible trigonometric expression. The inverted expression yields the back-projection for each object pose, camera elevation, and observer viewpoint. We show that a model that uses the back-projection, modulated by just two free parameters, explains 560 pose estimates per observer. By considering changes in retinal image orientations due to position and elevation of limbs, the model also explains perceived limb poses in a complex scene of two bodies lying on the ground. The inferential rules simply explain both perceptual invariance and dramatic distortions in poses of real and pictured objects, and show the benefits of incorporating projective geometry of light into mental inferences about 3D scenes.