The limits of increasing food production with irrigation in India

Abstract

Growing populations and dietary shifts to include higher proportions of meat are projected to double global food demand by 2050. Previous global studies have proposed and evaluated possible solutions by closing agricultural yield gaps, defined as the difference between current and potential crop yields. We compliment previous studies by developing a method for more accurately calculating potential changes in cereal grain production under different irrigation scenarios, explicitly incorporating yield differences associated with different sources of irrigation. Irrigating with groundwater often leads to higher crop yields than irrigating with surface water because of the greater facility to tailor both the volumes of water and the timing of application. Two possible scenarios for increasing production in India are examined, the first where all non-irrigated fields are irrigated proportionally to the State-specific distribution of irrigation sources, and the second where all non-irrigated fields are irrigated with groundwater: Rice production increases by 14 and 25 % in scenarios 1 and 2 respectively, but wheat production increases by only 3 % in both scenarios. Increased irrigation water consumption from irrigating fields that are currently non-irrigated is estimated at 31 % for rice and 3 % for wheat using the Global Crop Water Model. A third scenario estimates the potential loss in production without the use of irrigation: rice would be 75 % and wheat 51 % of current production. Our methodology and results can help policy makers estimate the current and potential contribution of irrigation sources to agricultural production and food security in India and can with facility be applied elsewhere.

Crop-specific seasonal estimates of irrigation-water demand in South Asia

“…These estimates agree with the recent study of Smilovic et al (2015), who focus on rice (kharif and rabi) and wheat (rabi) production in India only. They show that during kharif 68 % of rice production is produced on irrigated lands, which is only 56 % of the rice area sown.…”

“…They show that during kharif 68 % of rice production is produced on irrigated lands, which is only 56 % of the rice area sown. During rabi this percentage is much higher: 96 % of the rice was irrigated (on 89 % of the sown area) and 97 % of the wheat production was irrigated (on 93 % of the sown area) (Smilovic et al, 2015). We also calculated the potential rainfed yield on those areas currently irrigated.…”

A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

“…Associated with this irrigation improvement, the sowing area of Boro rice expanded significantly by 104.07% from 2.37 to 4.48 M ha (Table 3). Irrigation with groundwater has the ability to supply the required water on time, and thus can achieve higher crop yields than irrigation with surface water [22]. In India, the yield increase was mainly attributed to the "Green Revolution" that was implemented between the mid-1960s and the early 2000s [50], which aimed to change the heavy dependence on food aid of about two decades since the independence [15], and to ensure food self-sufficiency [9].…”

Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change

“…We find that currently, half of dry season irrigated crop production and a quarter of the total annual irrigated crop production is directly sustained by UGW (table 2). The most affected regions primarily grow India's staple crops-wheat and ricein the dry season [51]. The fertile Indo-Gangetic Plain is one of the most intensely farmed and populated areas in the world, and includes much of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, which have districts that produce up to 1.8 million tons of UGW-based agricultural output each year (figure 4).…”