The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross‐nationally and exploring methodology

Tonkin, Matthew; Santtila, Pekka; Bull, Ray

doi:10.1111/j.2044-8333.2010.02007.x

Cited by 42 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Hypotheses: In accordance with previous studies involving serial sexual offences (Grubin et al , ; Santtila et al , ; Wilson et al , ), we expected to extract stable behavioural scales or dimensions that could be used as predictors of linkage status to achieve correct classification above chance, using the LOOCV method. With the empirical evidence (Salo et al , ), the multivariate behavioural approach through a NBC would be expected to outperform a dimensional approach in terms of error‐free classification above chance, using the LOOCV method. As a more realistic test (as suggested by Woodhams & Labuschagne, ), we expected both approaches to perform significantly worse in terms of correct classifications when non‐serial cases are included in the linking task (although in Tonkin, Santtila et al , ; Tonkin, Woodhams, et al , , the sample constellation did not appear to negatively influence the linking performance in serial and one‐off burglaries). Calculating a percentage of error free links imposes an artificial decision threshold (Bennell et al , ). Therefore, it was assumed that dimensional and multivariate behavioural linking would achieve similar linkage accuracies when evaluated through ROC analysis.…”

Section: Assumptions and Support Of Linkage Analysissupporting

confidence: 52%

“…This methodology, which was utilised by Santtila et al (), tests the accuracy of offence–offender or offence–series combinations. It therefore differs from the more commonly used methodology put forward by Bennell (2002, cited in Tonkin, Santtila et al , ; Tonkin, Woodhams, et al , ) where logistic regression analysis is used to calculate the probability of a correct link for all possible offence pairs (i.e. offence–offence combinations).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Case Linkage Methods in Serious Sexual Assaults

Winter

Lemeire

Meganck

et al. 2012

Journal Invest Psychology

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The empirical support for linkage analysis is steadily increasing, but the question remains as to what method of linking is the most effective. We compared a more theory‐based, dimensional behavioural approach with a rather pragmatic, multivariate behavioural approach with regard to their accuracy in linking serial sexual assaults in a UK sample of serial sexual assaults (n = 90) and one‐off sexual assaults (n = 129). Their respective linkage accuracy was assessed by (1) using seven dimensions derived by non‐parametric Mokken scale analysis (MSA) as predictors in discriminant function analysis (DFA) and (2) 46 crime scene characteristics simultaneously in a naive Bayesian classifier (NBC). The dimensional scales predicted 28.9% of the series correctly, whereas the NBC correctly identified 34.5% of the series. However, a subsequent inclusion of non‐serial offences in the target group decreased the amount of correct links in the dimensional approach (MSA–DFA: 8.9%; NBC: 32.2%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used as a more objective comparison of the two methods under both conditions, confirming that each achieved good accuracies (AUCs = .74–.89), but the NBC performed significantly better than the dimensional approach. The consequences for the practical implementation in behavioural case linkage are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Assumptions and Support Of Linkage Analysissupporting

confidence: 52%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Case Linkage Methods in Serious Sexual Assaults

Winter

Lemeire

Meganck

et al. 2012

Journal Invest Psychology

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“…Comparable ranges for burglary were reported by Markson, Woodhams, and Bond (), Melnyk et al . (), and Tonkin, Santtila, and Bull () (interestingly, levels of linking accuracy in Finnish burglaries appear to be substantially higher; Tonkin, Santtila et al ., ). The AUC ranges in studies of car theft are also very wide (0.54–0.93 in Davies et al ., ; 0.56–0.81 in Tonkin et al ., ; and 0.50–0.82 in Tonkin, Woodhams, Bull, Bond, & Santtila, ), as is the range in the lone study of personal robbery (0.45–0.92; Burrell et al ., ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…For example, when Tonkin, Santtila et al . () examined linking accuracy in a sample of Finnish residential burglaries, they found that the level of accuracy was greater than that observed in previous UK‐based research. As Tonkin () states, ‘… the AUC value for all MO behaviours in Finland was 0.72 (which compared to an average AUC value in UK‐based research of 0.65), the AUC value for the target domain in Finland was 0.73 (compared to a UK average of 0.60), and the AUCs for entry and internal behaviours were both 0.66 (compared to UK averages of 0.58 and 0.51, respectively)’ (p. 13).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Linking Crimes Using Behavioural Clues: Current Levels of Linking Accuracy and Strategies for Moving Forward

Bennell

Mugford

Ellingwood

et al. 2013

Journal Invest Psychology

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The number of published studies examining crime linkage analysis has grown rapidly over the last decade, to the point where a special issue of this journal has recently been dedicated to the topic. Many of these studies have used a particular measure (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, or the AUC) to quantify the degree to which it is possible to link crimes. This article reviews studies that have utilised the AUC and examines how good we are currently at linking crimes (within the context of these research studies) and what factors impact linking accuracy. The results of the review suggest that, in the majority of cases, moderate levels of linking accuracy are achieved. Of the various factors that have been examined that might impact linking accuracy, the three factors that appear to have the most significant impact are crime type, behavioural domain, and jurisdiction. We discuss how generalisable these results are to naturalistic investigative settings. We also highlight some of the important limitations of the linking studies that we reviewed and offer up some strategies for moving this area of research forward. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Key words: crime linkage analysis; serial crime; behavioural consistency Research suggests that the majority of crime is committed by a minority of offenders (Paulsen, Bair, & Helms, 2009). Given this, police investigators will often face the difficult task of determining whether a set of crimes has been committed by the same offender. If high quality physical evidence is available at crime scenes, the task of determining whether multiple crimes were committed by the same offender is relatively straightforward, although not necessarily without challenges (Burrows, Tarling, *Correspondence to: Craig Bennell, Department of Psychology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1S 5B6. E-mail: craig_bennell@carleton.ca Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling J. Investig. Psych. Offender Profil. 11: 29-56 (2014) Published online 26 July 2013 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI: 10.1002DOI: 10. /jip.1395 Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Mackie, Poole, & Hodgson, 2005).1 When such evidence is lacking, however, the linking task can become much more difficult. In these cases, the behaviours exhibited by offenders across the crimes they have committed are often used to establish crime linkages (Grubin, Kelly, & Brunsdon, 2001). The primary task when taking such an approach is to identify stable but distinct patterns of behaviour in an offender's crimes, which allow one to distinguish between that offender's crimes and those of other offenders.One of the ultimate goals for researchers in this area is to identify approaches for analysing the behavioural clues left by offenders that maximise linking accuracy (Bennell & Canter, 2002). It is doubtful that one can focus on any single factor to accomplish this goal. Instead, linking accuracy will likely be maximised by caref...

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“…These were included because they have proved to be useful predictors of linkage in previous research (e.g., Tonkin, Santtila, & Bull, 2012). Furthermore, an analyst survey (Burrell & Bull, 2011) revealed that the majority of analysts (15 out of 18) use spatial and temporal behaviours to support linkage decisions.…”

Section: Behavioural Domain Formationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the impact of group offending on behavioural similarity in serial robbery

Burrell

Bull

Bond

et al. 2015

Psychology, Crime & Law

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Behavioural case linkage assumes that offenders behave in a similar way across their crimes. However, group offending could impact on behavioural similarity. This study uses robbery data from two police forces to test this by comparing the behavioural similarity of pairs of lone offences (LL), pairs of group offences (GG) and pairs of offences where one crime was committed alone and the other in a group (GL). Behavioural similarity was measured using Jaccard's coefficients. Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to examine differences between the three categories within the linked samples. No statistically significant differences were found for linked GG compared to linked LL pairs. However, differences emerged between GL and the other categories for some behaviours (especially control) suggesting caution should be applied when linking group and lone offences committed by the same perpetrator. Differences between linked and unlinked pairs were assessed using receiver operating characteristic. The results suggest it is possible to distinguish between linked and unlinked pairs based on behaviour especially within the GG and LL categories. There were, however, fewer significant findings for the GL sample, suggesting there may be issues linking crimes where the offender commits one crime as part of a group and the other alone.

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The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross‐nationally and exploring methodology

Cited by 42 publications

References 27 publications

Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Case Linkage Methods in Serious Sexual Assaults

Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Case Linkage Methods in Serious Sexual Assaults

Linking Crimes Using Behavioural Clues: Current Levels of Linking Accuracy and Strategies for Moving Forward

Testing the impact of group offending on behavioural similarity in serial robbery

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