The long game: Fiscal outlooks to 2060 underline need for structural reform

Abstract

The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. Series: OECD Economic Policy Papers SSN 2226583XThe statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

How does corporate taxation affect business investment?

“…2 on Tax Policy Analysis and Tax Statistics on 15-16 May 2023 for useful comments and inputs; and Sisse Nielsen for editorial assistance. 2 These observations at the aggregate level are in line with evidence showing that the effective minimum ex ante rate of return on corporate investment which is considered viable by companies (the so-called hurdle rates) have been relatively sticky despite fluctuations in the cost of finance (Sharpe and Suarez, 2015 [82]; OECD, 2017 [81]; Gormsen and Huber, 2022 [80]).…”

Making the most of public investment to address regional inequalities, megatrends and future shocks

“…Overall, the impact of COVID-19 on well-being takes many formsit has stalled education attainment, reduced social interactions, increased depression and anxiety among already-vulnerable groups and led to long-term unemployment and isolation for many (OECD, 2021 [77]). In the U.S., researchers have developed an interactive tool to monitor geographies of 'hope and desperation' showing vast differences across and within States and along racial lines in people's sense of optimism and worrythese findings point to higher health and employment outcomes for the optimistic than their less hopeful counterparts (Graham and Pinto, n.d. [80]). 7 Identifying and treating geographies of discontent has long-term implications for public health and the public purse, but also for the sustainability of democracy, in combatting disinformation and maintaining social cohesion across people and places.…”

Optimiser l'investissement public pour faire face aux inégalités régionales, aux grandes tendances et aux chocs futurs

“…Le pourcentage d'emplois fortement menacés par l'automatisation atteint près de 40 % dans certaines régions (par exemple, Slovaquie de l'Ouest), mais peut être aussi bas que 4 % dans d'autres (région d'Oslo) (OECD, 2020 [54]). L'automatisation va aussi certainement accélérer la polarisation de l'emploi (Goos, Manning and Salomons, 2014 [55]). Les emplois moyennement spécialisés diminuent au profit des emplois hautement spécialisés et peu spécialisés ; en effet, au sein des aires métropolitaines de l'OCDE, la demande pour des travailleurs hautement spécialisés augmente plus rapidement que celle pour les travailleurs moyennement spécialisés et les travailleurs peu spécialisés sont plus exposés à la perte de leur emploi à cause de l'automatisation (OECD, 2020 [54]).…”