The Long Road To First Oil

Mihalyi, David

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3719751

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Finally, in ongoing research, we have analyzed data on all of Chevron's 278 assets from 1973 to 2009 and found that on average investment starts 5 years after a discovery and production starts another 4 years after. Note also that in ongoing workMihalyi (2020) analyzed Rystad Ucube data on all oil companies and found that during 1960-2019 the global average in delays from discovery to extraction was 7.4 years, and as much as 11 years for giant discoveries.…”

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confidence: 99%

Resource Discoveries, FDI Bonanzas, and Local Multipliers: Evidence from Mozambique

Toews

Vézina

2022

The Review of Economics and Statistics

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We show that giant and unpredictable oil and gas discoveries trigger FDI bonanzas. Across developing countries, we document a 56% increase in FDI in the 2 years following a giant discovery. These booms are driven by new projects in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, services and construction. To assess the job creation effects of one such FDI bonanza in Mozambique we combine concurrent waves of household surveys and firm censuses and estimate the local job multiplier of FDI. Our estimates suggest that for each new FDI job, an additional 4.4 jobs are created locally, 2.1 of which are formal jobs.

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confidence: 99%

Resource Discoveries, FDI Bonanzas, and Local Multipliers: Evidence from Mozambique

Toews

Vézina

2022

The Review of Economics and Statistics

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“…For example, we have specified for the oil production profiles that the duration between discovery and first oil production is constant. Additional research could further investigate this issue, as in Mihalyi (2021), and propose how to include this into the bottom-up framework. Also, via the constant parameter for the "empty area" we have assumed that the success rate of exploratory wells is declining with each discovery.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Larger fields tend to have longer durations, although this finding seems to apply mainly to gas fields. As illustrated in figure 3 of Mihalyi (2021), for oil fields the durations are scattered around an average of about 7-8 years largely independent of the field's size. For UK North Sea oil fields, an econometric analysis of the duration between discovery and first production can also be found in Favero et al (1994).…”

Section: Overview and Production Profilesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The phase from discovery until approval usually takes several years and is usually longer than the capital procurement phase. Analyzing a comprehensive data set of about 20,500 oil and gas fields with first production before 2020, Mihalyi (2021) calculates a mean duration between discovery and approval of 5.5 years (with a standard deviation of 8.3 years), and a mean duration for the capital procurement phase of 1.5 years (with a standard deviation of 2.4 years).…”

Section: Overview and Production Profilesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bottom-up Aggregation of Field-Level Oil Production Profiles via a Successive Sampling Discovery Model and a Birth Process: An Application to the Gulf of Mexico and Norway

Tarach

2023

Preprint

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We formulate a stochastic bottom-up model for the rate of oil production in a region by combining a size-biased sampling model of the discovery process (Barouch-Kaufman model), a birth process model for the discovery times, and field-level production profiles. For the size-biased sampling model we make the usual assumptions plus the assumption of a truncated field-size distribution and a Poisson prior distribution for the total number of fields. We then propose two approaches by which the size-biased sampling model can be formally connected to a model for the discovery times within a stochastic birth process framework. Using a truncated lognormal field-size distribution, parameter estimation via the expectation-maximization algorithm is repeated for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Norway based on the discovery history up to several different years. Combining the estimation results with the other components of the bottom-up model, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations for each region to derive the posterior distribution (conditioning on the discovery history) for the time path of the rate of oil production. JEL classification: Q35, Q47, C83, C63

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Is there a Mineral-Induced ‘Economic Euphoria’?: Evidence from Latin America

Villar

2021

J Happiness Stud

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A development imperative emphasising the economic benefits of mineral extraction has led researchers to speculate about whether minerals inflate citizens’ economic expectations and, due to an upward shift in aspirations, cause a degree of dissatisfaction. Using survey data from 18 Latin American countries, this study finds evidence of the ‘euphoric effect’ of minerals materialising among household expectations concerning future changes in the economic situation of their country. Similarly, it also finds a positive and significant relationship with expectations concerning future changes in respondents’ personal economic situation. However, it does not detect a significant relationship between minerals and citizens’ life satisfaction.

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The Long Road To First Oil

Cited by 3 publications

References 32 publications

Resource Discoveries, FDI Bonanzas, and Local Multipliers: Evidence from Mozambique

Resource Discoveries, FDI Bonanzas, and Local Multipliers: Evidence from Mozambique

Bottom-up Aggregation of Field-Level Oil Production Profiles via a Successive Sampling Discovery Model and a Birth Process: An Application to the Gulf of Mexico and Norway

Is there a Mineral-Induced ‘Economic Euphoria’?: Evidence from Latin America

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