The long-run consequences of Chernobyl: Evidence on subjective well-being, mental health and welfare

Abstract

This paper assesses the long-run toll taken by a large-scale technological disaster on welfare, well-being and mental health. We estimate the causal effect of the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe after 20 years by linking geographic variation in radioactive fallout to respondents of a nationally representative survey in Ukraine according to their place of residence in 1986. The psychological effects of this nuclear disaster are large and persistent. More affected individuals exhibit poorer subjective well-being, higher depression rates and lower subjective survival probabilities; they rely more on governmental transfers as source of subsistence. We estimate the aggregate annual welfare loss at 6-8% of Ukraine's GDP highlighting previously ignored externalities of large-scale catastrophes.

Electricity Externalities, Siting, and the Energy Mix: A Survey

“…Danzer and Danzer (2016) investigated the causal effect after 20 years of the Chernobyl disaster by linking geographic variation in radioactive fallout to several outcome variables according to individuals' place of residence at the time of the disaster. Excluding individuals who were exposed to high levels of radiation, they found that persons receiving subclinical radiation doses exhibit poorer SWB and higher depression rates.…”

“…For individuals living within 150 km from the power plant, there was a drop in well-being whose monetary equivalent amounts to 240 percent of average annual income. Effects directly related to the radiation level could not be established given that the period of analysis ended less than a year after the event and radiation-related impairments are of a more long-term nature (as was found in the case of Chernobyl by Danzer and Danzer 2016).…”

Quantifying the social costs of nuclear energy: Perceived risk of accident at nuclear power plants

“…Still, nuclear power continues to be a highly contested issue in energy policy. The growing literature on the longterm physical and psychological health effects of nuclear catastrophes on well-being (e.g., Almond et al, 2009, Danzer and Danzer, 2016, Goebel et al, 2014 stresses the importance of analyzing the impacts of risk perceptions on the choices of technology in energy policy, where externalities and social costs play a crucial role. Our results show that risk perceptions increase the social costs of nuclear power considerably, and provide a case for policies that mitigate real risks and reduce fear.…”

Informalidad y supervivencia en Chernóbil: etnografía de un espacio nuclear

“…Con estimaciones de que alrededor del 5-8% del presupuesto anual de Ucrania se dedicaba a la gestión post-Chernóbil (Oughton et al, 2009;Stone, 2012;Danzer & Danzer, 2014), no sorprende que Kiev haya tomado pasos para re-enmarcar el desastre desde una cuestión abierta hacia una "certeza" cerrada en términos geográficos y temporales, circunscribiéndose así Chernóbil exclusivamente en la historia tardo-soviética. Este cambio en la gestión de Chernóbil tenía lugar después de que el Banco Mundial hubiese descrito los gastos provocados por Chernóbil como un "peso muerto" sobre la maltrecha economía ucraniana (Petryna, 2011), una visión política que seguramente se consolide con la difícil situación en que se encuentra la Ucrania post-Maidan y por la dura condicionalidad del FMI en su política de préstamos (Davies, 2014).…”