Dividend initiation policy offers a relatively unique practical and conceptual characteristics compared to those of regular dividend. This study aims at investigating whether initial dividend policy of Indonesian firms affects short-run stock return, while further exploring the implementation of a new event study approach, propensity score matching, as an experimental-like design. This approach is based on actual rather than estimated abnormal return commonly used in traditional approach. Applying this new approach, this study found no significant abnormal returns around dividend initiation announcement by firms listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The findings imply that the dividend initiation behavior of Indonesian firms is proved not fully to follow the theoretical framework of signaling model, a dividend model which is basically developed primarily based on regular dividend behavior. The results partly contradict those findings mostly resulted from researchs conducted in advanced market context but seem to support contextuality argument of dividend policy. From methodological perspective, this study identified that the use of propensity score matching approach needs a large number of firms from which control firms are selected, accordingly the study conducted in market with limited number of listed firms such as in Indonesia could generates selection problem of control firms that optimally match treated firms.Keywords: dividend initiation, signaling theory, propensity score matching
IntroductionSignaling model is one of the main theoretical explanatory models of dividend policy under the framework of the relevance of dividend proposition. Signaling model of dividend developed by Merton Miller and Modigliani (1961), Bhattacharya (1979), John and Williams (1985), and Miller and Rock (1985, builds upon the framework of asymmetric information. This model explains that the managers as corporate insiders use dividend policy as a means to provide a signal to the investors or market about private information associated with the prospects of the firm's performance. Therefore, according to the model, dividend policy taken by manager provides indication about the prospects of the firm's performance to the market.