The Longest 2020 Meiyu Season Over the Past 60 Years: Subseasonal Perspective and Its Predictions

Qiao, Shaobo; Chen, Dong; Wang, Bin; Cheung, Ho Nam; Liu, Fei; Cheng, Jianjun; Tang, Shankai; Zhang, Zengping; Feng, Guolin; Dong, Wenjie

doi:10.1029/2021gl093596

Cited by 94 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…However, the rainfall that lasts throughout the summer often causes floods and other weather disasters in the YHRV region (Ding et al., 2021). In the summer of 2020, the strongest continuous heavy rainfall in this century attacked the YHRV region in China, which caused huge casualties and severe property losses (Qiao et al., 2021). Therefore, it is essential to perform in‐depth research on the precipitation structure and microphysics, which is significant to improve numerical simulation and the forecasting timeliness of summer precipitation over the YHRV area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microphysics of Summer Precipitation Over Yangtze‐Huai River Valley Region in China Revealed by GPM DPR Observation

Xiong

Qiao

et al. 2022

Earth and Space Science

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Utilizing the measurements and retrievals from the Global Precipitation Measurement dual‐frequency precipitation radar data during the summer of 2014–2020, this study analyzes the precipitation microphysics for summer rainfall over the Yangtze‐Huai River Valley (YHRV) region in China with respect to the precipitation efficiency index (PEI). The results show that the mean near‐surface rain rate and PEI for convective precipitation are generally larger than that for stratiform precipitation. There are larger raindrops in near‐surface rainfall for convective precipitation than that for stratiform precipitation. The High PEI precipitation is characterized by the larger ratio of convective precipitation samples compared to that for the other two categories of precipitation. The mean mass‐weighted mean diameter (Dm) of the near‐surface raindrops increase along with the precipitation top height (PTH) in Moderate PEI precipitation for convective and stratiform precipitating clouds. The larger PEI indicates the larger occurrence of the heavy raindrops and strong radar echoes near the ground. The growth process of raindrops falling below the melting layer in the High PEI precipitation is dominated by collision‐coalescence while the collisional break up is the dominant process below the melting layer in Low PEI precipitation. It is further verified that the microphysical characteristics and mechanisms of summer rainfall over the YHRV region are similar to that of precipitation derived from tropical cyclones over the ocean during the monsoon period.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microphysics of Summer Precipitation Over Yangtze‐Huai River Valley Region in China Revealed by GPM DPR Observation

Xiong

Qiao

et al. 2022

Earth and Space Science

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“…Note that the 2020 PER case also differs subtly from the climatology. For example, the composite rainfall anomalies of Phase 1 during 2020 tend to be in quadrature with those of climatology, suggesting that other non‐MJO factors, such as the weather and climate systems of mid‐high latitudes (e.g., Liu et al., 2020; Qiao et al., 2021), may work energetically during summer of 2020 to compete with the “pure” MJO effect.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

MJO Phase Swings Modulate the Recurring Latitudinal Shifts of the 2020 Extreme Summer‐Monsoon Rainfall Around Yangtse

et al. 2022

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Considering the unprecedented extremity of the Meiyu episodes in early summer of 2020, here the authors perform a comprehensive study of the intraseasonal evolution characteristics of the observed rainfall round Yangtse as well as the potential modulating effect of Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). Results suggest that the Meiyu rainfall manifests as recurring latitudinal shifts around Yangtse during June–July of 2020, corresponding well to the continued swings of MJO circulation and convection between Phase 1 and Phase 2. The MJO affects the meridional migration of the 2020 Meiyu rainfall mainly through regulating the westward extended ridge line and southwesterly of the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP). Specifically, the northeastward propagation of boreal summer MJO from Phase 1 to 2 shifts the ridge line of the anomalous WNP anticyclone northeastward. Consequently, the associated southwesterly anomaly over the southeastern China penetrates to the north of Yangtse and enhances the lower‐tropospheric moisture flux convergence, supporting heavy precipitation there. However, when the MJO swings back to Phase 1, the anomalous southwesterly and moisture flux convergence retreat southward, so does the Meiyu rain band. The present results advanced our understanding of the interactions between the latitudinal shifts of extreme Meiyu rainfall episodes and MJO Phase swings.

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“…The local livelihood of millions of people and development of economies are vulnerable to the variations of summer precipitation, especially the droughts and floods brought by extreme precipitation anomalies (Hu et al 2020). For example, the severe summer drought in Henan Province in 2014 (Wang et al 2018) and the record-breaking Meiyu event over the Yangtze River basin in 2020 (Liu et al 2020;Ding et al 2021;Qiao et al 2021;Zheng and Wang 2021;Zhou et al 2021) seriously threatened the local people's living conditions and garnered much public attention. Thus, it is of great significance to investigate the variations of the central China summer precipitation (CCSP) and the internal mechanisms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal change in the influence of El Niño in the developing stage on the central China summer precipitation

Chen

Long

et al. 2021

Clim Dyn

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The central China summer precipitation (CCSP) is of great importance to the people's livelihood of this densely populated region, including the agriculture, ecosystems, water resources, economies, and health. Based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the effects of El Niño in the developing stage on the CCSP during 1960-2014. The results show that the CCSP anomalies exhibit significant negative correlations with the El Niño-related SST anomalies in both the simultaneous summer and the following winter, implying that the developing El Niño is important for modulating the CCSP. However, this climatic teleconnection of El Niño is unstable, with an obvious interdecadal change around the late 1980s. Specifically, the negative correlation is not statistically significant in the previous epoch before the late 1980s , but dramatically strengthens since the late 1980s (the post epoch for 1989-2014). Such an interdecadal change is closely associated with the change of the El Niño-related SST anomaly pattern. Compared to the previous epoch, the central Pacific El Niño occurs more frequently in the post epoch, leading to an interdecadal shift of the maximum warm SST anomalies from the eastern Pacific to the central Pacific. The resultant westward extension of the atmospheric circulation responses induces an anomalous low-level cyclone covering South China in the post epoch. It would prevent the southwest monsoon from delivering the moisture to the north and hence reduce the CCSP. While, in the previous epoch, the anomalous cyclone locates east of South China, exerting insignificant influence on the CCSP. This work highlights a strengthening effect of El Niño on the CCSP since the late 1980s, with great implications for the regional seasonal climate prediction.

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The Longest 2020 Meiyu Season Over the Past 60 Years: Subseasonal Perspective and Its Predictions

Cited by 94 publications

References 53 publications

Microphysics of Summer Precipitation Over Yangtze‐Huai River Valley Region in China Revealed by GPM DPR Observation

Microphysics of Summer Precipitation Over Yangtze‐Huai River Valley Region in China Revealed by GPM DPR Observation

MJO Phase Swings Modulate the Recurring Latitudinal Shifts of the 2020 Extreme Summer‐Monsoon Rainfall Around Yangtse

Interdecadal change in the influence of El Niño in the developing stage on the central China summer precipitation

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