The lure of populism: A conjoint experiment examining the interplay between demand and supply side factors

Abstract

Several studies have examined the success of populist leaders in recent decades. These studies focus on both supply side factors that concern the traits of populist actors and demand side factors in the form of characteristics of the supporters. However, we still lack a solid understanding of how these supply and demand side factors interact to explain the support of populist leaders. We contribute to this literature by examining the interplay of two central supply side factors, people-centeredness and nativism, and two demand side factors, political dissatisfaction and generational differences, in determining populist support. We test these explanations by leveraging a choice-based conjoint analysis embedded in a representative sample of the Finnish population (n=1030). The results show that while both people-centeredness and nativism enhance the favourability of prospective political leaders, it is only nativism that it more appealing to the politically dissatisfied. In contrast to recent studies, we find no evidence that populist leader traits would be more favoured by younger generations. These results indicate that the interplay between supply and demand may well be more intricate than what previous studies suggest.