The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration

Bachner, Gabriel; Lincke, Daniël; Hinkel, Jochen

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33043-z

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…We adopted the median values (50th percentile) of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 from 2020 to 2100, with a mean SLR across the Mediterranean at 0.31, 0.42, and 0.56 m by 2100 (relative to 1986–2005), respectively. Analyzing selected percentiles per SLR scenario 66 , 123 , 131 , 133 – 135 (and/or selected scenarios) is common practice in scenario-based modeling studies. The median SLR values used are in line with those reported in the IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 19 ; however, compared to those reported in the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report (AR6), they are on the low end of the uncertainty range 54 , 136 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

et al. 2023

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Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model (‘CONCLUDE’). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

et al. 2023

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“…According to human-environment relationship theory, cultural heritage is interlinked with socio-economic, demographic, and environmental factors, forming a complex adaptive system (29,31,32). This study interprets these interconnected relationships within a framework that encompasses cultural, population, economic, industrial, and ecological subsystems (33,34) (Fig.…”

Section: Comprehensive Slr Impact Assessment: Beyond Direct Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond Inundation: A Comprehensive Assessment of Sea Level Rise Impact on Coastal Cultural Heritage in China

Chen,

Gao,

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The rise in sea levels, driven by global climate change, poses a significant threat to cultural heritage in coastal regions. Traditional risk assessment methods, focusing on direct inundation, often fail to consider the crucial impact of socio-economic factors, which are significantly vulnerable to sea lever rise. To bridge this gap, this study introduces an innovative Sea Level Rise Cultural Heritage Impact Assessment Model (SLR-CHIA Model), a novel approach that integrates both land inundation and socio-economic aspects. This comprehensive model evaluates potential risks to various types of cultural heritage in coastal China, including intangible cultural heritage, relics, and traditional villages. The study's findings are striking: (1) About 7.79% of coastal villages, 53.94% of relics, and 2.53% of intangible cultural heritage are potentially at high risk in a 100-year sea level rise event; (2) Relics in the Eastern coast and villages in the Southern coast are most vulnerable (3) Different types of cultural heritage rely on diverse principal factors for protection, resulting in varied risk levels under sea level rise conditions. The SLR-CHIA Model provides a vital methodological framework for evaluating cultural heritage risks in other global regions.

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“…For instance, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that followed, disrupted the production of critical components that lead to significant production losses worldwide (WEF, 2012). Indirect risk is thus indeed significant and can strongly amplify direct risks (Bachner et al., 2022; Hallegatte et al., 2007; Mandel et al., 2021). This is particularly the case for industrialized countries, as they are characterized by a high degree of specialization and strong inter‐sectoral dependencies and feedbacks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is particularly the case for industrialized countries, as they are characterized by a high degree of specialization and strong inter‐sectoral dependencies and feedbacks. Moreover, risk is also propagating via trade across country borders (Bednar‐Friedl et al., 2022; Carter et al., 2021), adding to the complexity (Centeno et al., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revealing indirect risks in complex socioeconomic systems: A highly detailed multi‐model analysis of flood events in Austria

et al. 2023

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Cascading risks that can spread through complex systems have recently gained attention. As it is crucial for decision‐makers to put figures on such risks and their interactions, models that explicitly capture such interactions in a realistic manner are needed. Climate related hazards often cascade through different systems, from physical to economic and social systems, causing direct but also indirect risks and losses. Despite their growing importance in the light of ongoing climate change and increasing global connections, such indirect risks are not well understood. Applying two fundamentally different economic models—a computable general equilibrium model and an agent‐based model—we reveal indirect risks of flood events. The models are fed with sector‐specific capital stock damages, which constitutes a major methodological improvement. We apply these models for Austria, a highly flood exposed country with strong economic linkages. A key finding is that flood damages pose very different indirect risks to different sectors and household groups (distributional effects) in the short and long‐term. Our results imply that risk management should focus on specific societal subgroups and sectors. We provide a simple metric for indirect risk, showing how direct and indirect losses are related. This can provide new ways forward in risk management, for example, focusing on interconnectedness of sectors and agents within different risk‐layers of indirect risk. Although we offer highly relevant leverage points for indirect risk management in Austria, the methodology of analyzing indirect risks can be transferred to other regions.

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The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration

Cited by 17 publications

References 54 publications

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Beyond Inundation: A Comprehensive Assessment of Sea Level Rise Impact on Coastal Cultural Heritage in China

Revealing indirect risks in complex socioeconomic systems: A highly detailed multi‐model analysis of flood events in Austria

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