The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence

Diop, Samba; Asongu, Simplice; Tchamyou, Vanessa S.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4077998

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 36 publications

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“…In our study, we use the Generalized Synthetic Control (GSC) method to evaluate the impact. Consistent with contemporary literature on crisis, the GSC approach is more interpretable, efficient and transparent because of three main reasons (Diop et al, 2021), notably: (i) it generalizes the Synthetic Control (SC) method into many treated units and/or variable treatment periods; (ii) uncertainty estimates as well as confidence intervals are provided by the GSC and (iii) the risk of overfitting is mitigated by the GSC because the approach adjusts the number of factors using a cross-validating perspective. Covallo et al (2013) have already applied a counterfactual method to examine the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Mitigating the macroeconomic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa: policy synergies

Diop,

Asongu,

Tchamyou

2024

Journal of Contemporary African Studies

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This study evaluates the economic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa using the generalized synthetic control method. In other words, it assesses how gross domestic product (GDP) would have been affected if severe natural disasters did not occur. Moreover, it explores the determinants of the destructiveness of the impact, focusing on the role played by capital. We find that severe natural disasters induce a significant and continuous reduction of GDP many years after the event. Indeed, economic losses caused by disasters depend on the level of capital (human capital, employment and capital stock) and aspects of governance quality (political stability and absence of violence). In other words, negative synergies are apparent because while capital stock, employment and human capital unconditionally reduce the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters, the corresponding conditional or interactive effects with political stability are also negative. Policy implications are discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Mitigating the macroeconomic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa: policy synergies

Diop,

Asongu,

Tchamyou

2024

Journal of Contemporary African Studies

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Economic Development amidst Conflict: Exploring the Dynamics in Developing Nations

Abbas,

Rauf,

Sultan

et al. 2024

JPR

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This study aims to examine the effects of ongoing conflicts on economic growth in developing countries. The study has employed Quantile Regression technique to examine the influence of conflicts on economic growth at different levels of quantiles by using panel data from 2007 to 2022. The findings of the study indicate that ongoing conflict has a negative impact on GDP growth in developing countries while gross fixed capital formation, labor force growth, and governance show the positive impact on GDP growth in all income groups but population growth and social development index shows mixed results as in some quantiles these variables impact negatively on GDP. The government and policymakers may reduce ongoing conflict by strengthening institutions, conflict prevention initiatives and promoting peace-building programs that will increase economic growth in developing countries.

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The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence

Cited by 2 publications

References 36 publications

Mitigating the macroeconomic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa: policy synergies

Mitigating the macroeconomic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa: policy synergies

Economic Development amidst Conflict: Exploring the Dynamics in Developing Nations

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