The Magnitude and Drivers of Methane Ebullition and Diffusion Vary on a Longitudinal Gradient in a Small Freshwater Reservoir

McClure, R. Â. P.; Lofton, M. Â. E.; Chen, S.; Krueger, Kathryn M.; Little, J. Â. C.; Carey, C.

doi:10.1029/2019jg005205

Cited by 34 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…Similarly, a clear temperature dependence of methanogenesis and/or methanotrophy may be apparent when maximal potential rates are measured (Sepulveda-Jauregui et al 2018), but less obvious in our analysis of rates measured at close to in situ conditions. Lastly, it is important to note that other studies have observed a strong relationship between temperature and sediment ebullition, a CH 4 emission pathway we do not examine here (Aben et al 2017;Davidson et al 2018;McClure et al 2020).…”

Section: Temperature and Latitudementioning

confidence: 97%

Methanogenesis exceeds CH₄ consumption in eutrophic lake sediments

D’Ambrosio

Harrison

2021

Limnol Oceanogr Letters

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In lakes and reservoirs, most microbially produced methane (CH 4 ) is efficiently consumed via CH 4 oxidation, and changes to the balance between these two processes would have important implications for future aquatic greenhouse gas emissions. However, previous syntheses of CH 4 measurements from lakes and reservoirs compile emission rates from the surface, while ignoring CH 4 production and oxidation rates in the water column and sediments below. Our data set brings together CH 4 production and oxidation rates from over 60 lakes and reservoirs for the first time. Systems with greater sediment CH 4 production had less efficient sediment CH 4 consumption, potentially driving greater emissions. Our results also link higher lake primary productivity (trophic status) to greater sediment CH 4 production, suggesting eutrophication may contribute to increasing emissions.

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Section: Temperature and Latitudementioning

confidence: 97%

Methanogenesis exceeds CH₄ consumption in eutrophic lake sediments

D’Ambrosio

Harrison

2021

Limnol Oceanogr Letters

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“…The forecasting workflow used a model developed from a previous summer sampling season (2017) of CH 4 ebullition monitoring data collected at FCR to build and calibrate our forecast models (McClure et al, 2020b). In 2017, four ebullition traps were deployed and monitored weekly from 8 May to 24 October along a shallow upstream transect (McClure et al, 2020a; Figure 1). In 2019, the year of this forecasting study, we redeployed all four traps as close as possible to their original locations in 2017 and forecasted measurements collected weekly throughout the summer.…”

Section: Site Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There were three parameters in this model: the intercept term (β 0 ), the parameter governing the effect of the AR term (β 1 ), and the parameter governing the effect of SWI temperature (β 2 ). This model was chosen based on prior modeling work at the site, which demonstrated that ≥60% of the total reservoir-wide CH 4 ebullition was emitted from the shallow upstream transect in FCR during the ice-free period, and that there was a strong positive relationship between ebullition and sediment-water interface (SWI) temperatures (McClure et al, 2020a). We estimated the posterior distributions of the parameters in the model using a state-space Bayesian framework.…”

Section: Forecast Model and Model-fittingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alternative model structures (e.g., DelSontro et al, 2016;Schmid et al, 2017;Peltola et al, 2018;Grasset et al, 2021) could also improve our CH 4 ebullition forecasts and improve their transferability to other freshwater ecosystems and different temporal scales. Because our forecasts relied on an AR model developed from earlier work in FCR (McClure et al, 2020a), we were unable to quantify model selection uncertainty by using an ensemble of models in our forecasting workflow (e.g., process-based ebullition models; Peltola et al, 2018;Schmid et al, 2017), which is an important step for future work. Testing different forecasting workflows with different CH 4 ebullition model covariates and model types in inland water ecosystems at varying temporal and spatial scales will further improve our understanding of this important biogeochemical flux.…”

Section: Forecasting System Limitations and Areas For Improvementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include 1) model transferability across time and space (i.e., the ability to apply ebullition models across years and ecosystems); 2) identification of the forecast horizons for which future estimates provide useful information (Petchey et al, 2015); and 3) quantification of uncertainty in model predictions. First, while there are multiple different CH 4 ebullition models for inland waters, e.g., process-based models that couple physical, biogeochemical, and bubble plume modules (Schmid et al, 2017), empirical models that use physical, chemical and biological drivers as predictors of CH 4 ebullition fluxes (DelSontro et al, 2016;Aben et al, 2017;Grasset et al, 2021), and auto-regressive (AR) time series models (McClure et al, 2020a), it remains unknown how well they can predict CH 4 ebullition dynamics over time within the same ecosystem. Moreover, given the clear interannual variability in ebullition rates across inland water systems (Burke et al, 2019;Männistö et al, 2019;Linkhorst et al, 2020), quantifying the transferability of CH 4 ebullition model predictions from 1 year to another is critical for CH 4 ebullition modeling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Iterative Forecasting Improves Near-Term Predictions of Methane Ebullition Rates

McClure

Thomas

Lofton

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Near-term, ecological forecasting with iterative model refitting and uncertainty partitioning has great promise for improving our understanding of ecological processes and the predictive skill of ecological models, but to date has been infrequently applied to predict biogeochemical fluxes. Bubble fluxes of methane (CH4) from aquatic sediments to the atmosphere (ebullition) dominate freshwater greenhouse gas emissions, but it remains unknown how best to make robust near-term CH4 ebullition predictions using models. Near-term forecasting workflows have the potential to address several current challenges in predicting CH4 ebullition rates, including: development of models that can be applied across time horizons and ecosystems, identification of the timescales for which predictions can provide useful information, and quantification of uncertainty in predictions. To assess the capacity of near-term, iterative forecasting workflows to improve ebullition rate predictions, we developed and tested a near-term, iterative forecasting workflow of CH4 ebullition rates in a small eutrophic reservoir throughout one open-water period. The workflow included the repeated updating of a CH4 ebullition forecast model over time with newly-collected data via iterative model refitting. We compared the CH4 forecasts from our workflow to both alternative forecasts generated without iterative model refitting and a persistence null model. Our forecasts with iterative model refitting estimated CH4 ebullition rates up to 2 weeks into the future [RMSE at 1-week ahead = 0.53 and 0.48 loge(mg CH4 m−2 d−1) at 2-week ahead horizons]. Forecasts with iterative model refitting outperformed forecasts without refitting and the persistence null model at both 1- and 2-week forecast horizons. Driver uncertainty and model process uncertainty contributed the most to total forecast uncertainty, suggesting that future workflow improvements should focus on improved mechanistic understanding of CH4 models and drivers. Altogether, our study suggests that iterative forecasting improves week-to-week CH4 ebullition predictions, provides insight into predictability of ebullition rates into the future, and identifies which sources of uncertainty are the most important contributors to the total uncertainty in CH4 ebullition predictions.

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Controls of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Natural and Constructed Agricultural Waterbodies on the Northern Great Plains

Jensen

Webb

Simpson

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Inland waters are hotspots of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and small water bodies are now well known to be particularly active in the production and consumption of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). High variability in physical, chemical, and environmental parameters affect the production of these GHG, but currently the mechanistic underpinnings are unclear, leading to high uncertainty in scaling up these fluxes. Here, we compare the relative magnitudes and controls of emissions of all three major GHG in twenty pairs of natural wetland ponds and constructed reservoirs in Canada's largest agricultural region. While gaseous fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 were comparable between the two waterbody types, CH 4 ebullition was greater in wetland ponds. Carbon dioxide levels were associated primarily with metabolic indicators in both water body types, with primary productivity paramount in agricultural reservoirs, and heterotrophic metabolism a stronger correlate in wetland ponds. Methane emissions were positively driven by eutrophication in the reservoirs, while competitive inhibition by sulfur-reducing bacteria may have limited CH 4 in both waterbody types. Contrary to expectations, N 2 O was undersaturated in both water body types, with wetlands a significantly stronger and more widespread N 2 O sink than were reservoirs. These results support the need for natural and constructed water bodies for regional GHG budgets and identification of GHG processing hotspots.

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The Magnitude and Drivers of Methane Ebullition and Diffusion Vary on a Longitudinal Gradient in a Small Freshwater Reservoir

Cited by 34 publications

References 103 publications

Methanogenesis exceeds CH₄ consumption in eutrophic lake sediments

Methanogenesis exceeds CH₄ consumption in eutrophic lake sediments

Iterative Forecasting Improves Near-Term Predictions of Methane Ebullition Rates

Controls of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Natural and Constructed Agricultural Waterbodies on the Northern Great Plains

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The Magnitude and Drivers of Methane Ebullition and Diffusion Vary on a Longitudinal Gradient in a Small Freshwater Reservoir

Cited by 34 publications

References 103 publications

Methanogenesis exceeds CH4 consumption in eutrophic lake sediments

Methanogenesis exceeds CH4 consumption in eutrophic lake sediments

Iterative Forecasting Improves Near-Term Predictions of Methane Ebullition Rates

Controls of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Natural and Constructed Agricultural Waterbodies on the Northern Great Plains

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Product

Resources

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Methanogenesis exceeds CH₄ consumption in eutrophic lake sediments

Methanogenesis exceeds CH₄ consumption in eutrophic lake sediments