4Animal waste from Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) is a significant 5 contributor to nitrate contamination of groundwater. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 6 alternative policies for controlling nitrate pollution at the field and farm level, this article 7 implements a structural dynamic model of a representative CAFO. The model accounts for herd 8 management, manure handling systems, crop rotations, water sources, irrigation systems, waste 9 disposal options, and pollutant emissions. Results show that the standard approach of limiting the 10 amount of animal waste that may be applied to fields reduces net farm income by more than 25% 11 whereas the most cost-effective emission-based policies reduce income only marginally. This 12 motivates greater consideration for nonpoint source pollution control policies that target 13 estimated emissions. Furthermore price instruments are shown to slightly outperform quantity 14 instruments under conditions that are typical of CAFOs. The results also show that adoption of 15 alternative technologies and practices is crucial for cost-effective abatement, and demonstrate the 16 importance of accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of both irrigation water and salinity when 17 designing policy mechanisms for nitrate pollution control. 18Key words: CAFO, animal waste, nitrate, salinity, groundwater, dynamic optimization, pollution 19 control policy 20
JEL Classification code: Q53, Q58 21The growing world population, together with globally converging diets, has fueled the 22 sustained rise in demand for food of animal origin. Between 1964-66 and 1997-99, the human 23 2 population roughly doubled, while the number of domestic animals tripled (FAO 2003). In the 24 U.S., the national average stocking density for dairy operations increased from 57 to 139 head 25 per farm from 1992 to 2009 (USDA 2010). The situation is particularly noticeable in California. 26California has been the nation's leading dairy state since 1993. As of 2009, the average size of a 27 dairy herd in the state was 1055 cows, much higher than the national average level (CDFA 28 2010). For Kern County, one of the five leading dairy counties in the state, the average number 29 of cows in a dairy operation is up to 3190 (CDFA 2010). Higher farm incomes due to economies 30 of scale will likely sustain the trend toward larger and more concentrated animal feeding 31 operations (CAFOs). 32Another significant and concurrent change throughout the world has been land use 33 transformation. For the U.S. agricultural sector specifically, changes have taken place in 34 cropping patterns with the total amount of crop land relatively stable (Lubowski et al. 2006). In 35 California, more than 1.2 million acres of land for field crops has been converted to vineyards, 36 vegetables, and orchards in the past three decades (Cooley et al. 2009). Consolidation combined 37 with the deceasing acreage for field crops lead to less land available for animal waste disposal. In 38 addition, animal waste, esp...