Non-technical summaryNational economic concerns still hinder the implementation of effective policy measures that would enable a significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Considering other economic problems like unemployment, the enforcement of Maastricht criterions and highly tensed social security systems, the global warming issue seems to be of less priority on the political agenda of EU governments. Nevertheless, the international political pressure forces policy-makers to do something and show at least political willingness. One frequently mentioned instrument that might enable governments to escape the dilemma is the idea of an environmental tax reform. The hope that advocats have in mind is to obtain two positive effects at the same time (double dividend): a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in employment and/or consumer welfare.Our analysis shows that, from an empirical point of view, obtaining an economic dividend in terms of welfare by undertaking an 'intelligent' environmental tax reform remains at least possible, but relying on it seems rather optimistic as there are numerous uncertain influences that might alter the sign of the welfare effect. Obtaining an economic dividend in terms of employment seems to be more robust. But, the hope that an environmental tax reform might contribute substantially to solve the problem of unemployment melts away.
AbstractWhile there is some hope that the ongoing climate change negotiations will soon come up with concrete, time scheduled and binding emission reduction commitments, the question of how to achieve these targets is still unsolved. The objective of this paper is to analyse alternative settings of an environmental tax reform and its economic and environmental impacts on the EU. The methodological framework used is based on a multi-country and multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model for eleven EU-member states. The emphasis of the analysis lies on the institutional setting of a carbon dioxide reduction policy and on the specification of the labour market. The institutional settings analysed are related to the degree of environmental policy coordination. As standard neo-classics neglegt the problem of unvoluntary unemployment, we relax this restriction in the second part of the analysis in order to test alternative (more rigid) labour market specifications. The major findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: 1) There is some potential for a double dividend in the EU. 2) Coordination beats not always unilateral actions. 3) Labour market rigidities play a crucial role to both, the double dividend and the coordination issue.
AcknowledgementThis research is based on two modelling projects financed by the JOULE-II programme of the European Comission (DGXII). We are indebted to Pantelis Capros, Takis Georgakopoulos (NTUA-Athens) Stef Proost and Denise Van Regemorter (CES at the Katholic University of Leuven), who are co-developers of the model GEM-E3. Nevertheless, we take responsibility for all errors and omission...