Few school choice evaluations consider students who leave such programs, and fewer still consider the effects of leaving these programs as policy-relevant outcomes. Using a representative sample of students from the citywide voucher program inMilwaukee, Wisconsin, we analyze more than 1,000 students who leave the program during a 4-year period. We show that low-performing voucher students tend to move from the voucher sector into lower performing and less effective public schools than the typical public school student attends, whereas high-performing students transfer to better public schools. In general, transferring students realize substantial achievement gains after moving to the public sector; these results are robust to multiple analytical approaches. This evidence has important implications for school choice policy and research. Keywords: school vouchers, student achievement, program evaluation, attrition Student selection is one of the most controversial aspects of school choice policy. The literature has given prominent attention to the characteristics of students who select into various alternatives to traditional public schools (Betts & Fairlie, 2001;Bifulco & Ladd, 2007;Campbell, West, & Peterson, 2005;Fairlie & Resch, 2002;Figlio, 2008;Figlio, Hart, & Metzger, 2010;Figlio & Stone, 2001;Goldring & Phillips, 2008;Howell, 2004;Lankford & Wyckoff, 2001;Long & Toma, 1988). Accounting for systematic student selection processes is critical for obtaining internally valid estimates of the effect of school choice programs on educational outcomes. Even when threats to internal validity appear minimal, differences between the students who select into a school choice program and the larger population of school children may limit the extent to which estimated effects can provide an externally valid guide to policymakers looking to replicate or expand the program at hand.Despite the attention devoted to student selection into various choice programs, there have been few studies explicitly concerned with students who select out of such programs. Even in an educational environment with several schooling options, some students will undoubtedly elect to remain in, or return to, the traditional public sector for a variety of possible reasons. Earlier studies by Cowen, Fleming, Witte, & Wolf (2012) and Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis June 2013, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 179-199 DOI: 10.3102/0162373712461852 © 2013 AERA. http://eepa.aera.net at UNIV OF OKLAHOMA on January 20, 2016 http://eepa.aera.net Downloaded from
180Carlson et al. Howell (2004) have analyzed the characteristics of individuals who leave voucher programs and return to the traditional public sector, but to our knowledge, there has been no research that systematically considers the academic careers of former choice students after they have enrolled or reenrolled in public schools.
1It is toward this understanding that we are focused in the current article. Drawing on data from the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP) and Milwaukee Publi...