The Mass Balance of Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River in Relation to Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

Yuan, Feifei; Hao, Zhenchun; Berndtsson, Ronny; Jiang, Peng; Yasuda, Hiroshi

doi:10.3390/w8030100

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…a −1 with the Landsat and the fixed albedo parameterization, respectively. Both values agree well with the rate of −664 mm a −1 found by Yuan et al [20] during the period 1997-2010 and with the rate of −702 mm a −1 during 1997-2008 derived by Li et al [16]. They are less than 8% higher than the −740 mm a −1 observed by Han et al [14] for the period 1997-2002.…”

Section: Surface Mass Balance Modeling and Associated Uncertaintiessupporting

confidence: 91%

“…RRR prediction is known to be highly error-prone, especially in complex terrain (e.g., [3,89,90]). UG1 has been shown in various studies to be especially sensitive to T2 and to RRR [11,13,16,20]. In addition to these two parameters, [22] also stresses UG1's sensitivity especially to SW in (in combination with albedo) and to U2 and RH2.…”

Section: Surface Mass Balance Modeling and Associated Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 93%

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Modeling of Mass Balance Variability and Its Impact on Water Discharge from the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 Catchment, Tian Shan, China

Thiel

Arndt

Wang

et al. 2020

Water

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Originating in the Tian Shan mountains, Urumqi River plays a key role in terms of water supply to downstream areas. In its headwaters, Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) is the largest glacier contributing to water discharge. Assessing its response to the changing climatic conditions in the area is of major importance to quantify future water availability. We here apply COSIPY, a COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass balance model in PYthon, to UG1, implementing a new albedo parameterization which integrates site-specific bare-ice albedo values on a pixel-by-pixel basis observed by remote sensing. We assess model performance threefold: quantitatively based on long-term measurement data of (1) surface mass balance (SMB) and (2) water discharge as well as qualitatively (3) comparing simulated snow line altitudes to such imated on the basis of time-lapse photography. Comparison of the modeled SMB with annually-averaged data from ablation stakes reveals that COSIPY including the new albedo parameterization accounts for 57.6% of the variance observed in the measurements. The original albedo parameterization performs only slightly inferior (57.1%). Glacier-wide comparison between modeled and glaciological SMB shows high agreement. In terms of discharge prediction, COSIPY reproduces onset and duration of the discharge season well. Estimated discharge from the whole catchment shows shortcomings in exactly matching the measured times series, but interannual variability is captured.

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Section: Surface Mass Balance Modeling and Associated Uncertaintiessupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Surface Mass Balance Modeling and Associated Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 93%

Modeling of Mass Balance Variability and Its Impact on Water Discharge from the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 Catchment, Tian Shan, China

Thiel

Arndt

Wang

et al. 2020

Water

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“…An equivalent change point was detected in 1997 in the mass balance on Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River (Yuan and others, 2016). The recent global warming hiatus after 1997/98 (Wang and others, 2016b) was also found in the δ 18 O records of the Kuokuosele ice core in the Muztag Ata region (Drolkar and others, 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of the mass balance of Muztag Ata No. 15 glacier, eastern Pamir, and its climatic drivers

et al. 2018

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ABSTRACT. The mass-balance of Muztag Ata No. 15 (MZ15) glacier in the eastern Pamir is reconstructed between 1980 and 2012 using an energy-based mass-balance model. The results show that this glacier has been characterized by obvious interannual mass-balance changes during 1980-2012 with a slightly positive mass balance during 1998-2012. Precipitation in the ablation season is a primary driver of these mass-balance fluctuations. Distinct changes in the mass-balance of MZ15 glacier between 1980-1997 and 1998-2012 are thought to be associated with changes in the regionally averaged meridional wind speed and corresponding precipitation in the ablation season. The negative and positive mass-balance phases during 1980-1997 and 1998-2012, respectively, were associated with northerly and southerly wind anomalies in the eastern Pamir and their corresponding decreasing and increasing precipitation. These changes in circulation appear to be linked to the mid-latitude climate. Finally, contrary to the variation of most glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau, glaciers in the Karakoram-western Kunlun-eastern Pamir appear to have retreated more slowly over the past 10 years than during the 1970s-2000. This contrasting trend may be caused by different changes in snowfall and different topography factors in different regions under warming and increased precipitation.

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“…To find potential abrupt changes in climatic time series and compare correlations before and after the change, Change-Point Analyzer [33,34] was used to detect change points. Change-Point Analyzer is a software package for analyzing time ordered data to determine whether a change has taken place, and it detects multiple changes and provides confidence levels for each of these.…”

Section: Correlation Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic Response of Climate Change in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, Based on Water Balance Analysis

Berndtsson

et al. 2017

Water

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Due to the large amount of water resources stored in glaciers, permafrost, and lakes, the source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR) is of great importance for the overall basin water flow. For this purpose, a state of art review and calculations were made for the period 1957-2013 using observed hydrological and meteorological data with a water balance approach. Actual evapotranspiration was calculated and validated by empirical formulas. Water storage change analysis was conducted with uncertainty boundaries using a 10-year moving window. Results show that temperature, precipitation, and actual evapotranspiration in the SRYR increased by 0.34 • C, 11.4 mm, and 7.6 mm per decade, respectively (significant at 0.05 probability level). Runoff appears to have increased at a rate of 3.3 mm per decade. The SRYR water storage in total has not changed significantly during the period, although the moving average is mostly below zero. Based on the water balance equation, the increase in calculated evapotranspiration is mainly due to the significantly increasing temperature. This in combination with increasing precipitation leads to a relatively stable water storage during the study period. Correlation analyses show that precipitation dominates runoff during the warm season (May to October), while temperature anomalies dominate the runoff during the cold season (November to April). The influence of temperature on runoff seems to enhance during the winter period.

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The Mass Balance of Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River in Relation to Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

Cited by 7 publications

References 47 publications

Modeling of Mass Balance Variability and Its Impact on Water Discharge from the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 Catchment, Tian Shan, China

Modeling of Mass Balance Variability and Its Impact on Water Discharge from the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 Catchment, Tian Shan, China

Reconstruction of the mass balance of Muztag Ata No. 15 glacier, eastern Pamir, and its climatic drivers

Hydrologic Response of Climate Change in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, Based on Water Balance Analysis

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