The Mathematical Modeling of the Epidemic Diseases Induced by Biological Attack With Contagious Agents

Abstract

The current security context illustrated by the COVID-19 pandemic shows us that we have vulnerabilities, that there are threats and that there will be risks, including biological ones. In the field of BIO defense it is almost impossible to experiment at the general level. This can only be done on time in the laboratory, in vitro, in vivo and possibly in silico. The calculation methodology for the effects of possible attack with contagious biological warfare agents has certain assumptions and limitations. Considering that the population is homogeneous it results that the isolated groups, to which the infection it does not spread, will show an overestimation. Possible individual variations, particular diseases and asymptomatic cases are not taken into account so either an underestimation or an overestimation occurs. In the mathematical modeling of the epidemic diseases induced by biological attack with contagious agents can use the SEIRP model: Susceptible, Exposed and Infected, Infectious, Removed and Prophylaxis Efficacious Model. The study is important for medical operational planning.