The Maze and the Mirror: Voting Correctly in Direct Democracy

Abstract

Objectives. This article assesses the conditions under which voters are more likely to vote "correctly" in direct democratic ballots. We look for determinants of correct voting simultaneously at the individual and contextual levels through a multilevel approach. At the individual level we provide special attention to the level of sophistication and the use of cognitive heuristics. At the contextual level we will investigate how the nature and content of political campaigns-more specifically, their intensity and negativity-enhance correct voting. We test our empirical models in the "hardcase" scenario of Swiss direct democracy. We propose an alternative approach for the measure of correct voting, one that makes a full use of survey data but that tries to replicate the original idea of comparison between uninformed and informed voters to establish the "correctness" of a decision. Methods. We use two different data sets that cover all direct democratic votes held in Switzerland, at the federal level, between 1999 and 2005; this period covers 23 ballots, during which 75 different projects were voted. To measure correct voting and all individual variables we rely on the VOX survey data, collected on a representative sample of about 1,000 individuals after each direct democratic vote in Switzerland. To measure campaign intensity and negativity we rely on an original data set that codes the content of every campaign ad published in the six major Swiss newspapers during the month prior to each ballot. Results. We show that political sophistication and the use of referential heuristics strongly enhance correct voting. Furthermore, at the contextual level, we show that campaigns with high intensity decrease correct voting, especially when combined with high negativity, even though the direct effect of negativity on correct voting is positive. Conclusion. We contribute to the existing literature in a threefold way. First, our results provide an additional confirmation that correct voting exists under both individual and contextual influences. Second, we assess the presence and determinants of correct voting in direct democracy, a "hard-case" scenario, and find that the share of citizens who vote correctly is in line with the levels found for American citizens during elections, and that the main determinants seem to hold for both elections and direct democracy. Third, our alternative approach to measure correct voting highlights that the original idea of comparison between uninformed and informed voters, usually dealt with through experimental protocols, can be replicated with survey data.

Party, policy – or both? Partisan-biased processing of policy arguments in direct democracy

“…Again, we standardize this indicator with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This approach to measuring policy arguments is in line with previous Swiss research on the effect of arguments and on correct voting (Kriesi 2005, Nai 2015, Lanz and Nai 2015, Milic 2012.…”

“…In other words, we do not know whether respondents adapt their vote intention to their argument position or the other way around -but, that said, we think that the association between these two variables and its change throughout the campaign is already a very interesting finding, which lines up well with other studies that use experimental methods to better determine the direction of causality. The question of causality between vote intentions and argument positions is at the heart of recent studies on correct voting in Swiss direct democracy (see Nai 2015, Lanz and Nai 2015, Milic 2012).…”

Tracing the Boundaries of Motivated Reasoning: How Deliberative Minipublics Can Improve Voter Knowledge

“…If future research validates this account, it will be important to understand more about the nature of this motivation to form accurate beliefs. Are voters in these circumstances considering new evidence and arguments in hopes of “voting correctly” (Nai, ) on ballot measures? Or are respondents who resist directional reasoning impulses trying to impress their peers, or (worse) the researchers?…”

Does Sophistication Affect Electoral Outcomes?

“…While the other studies examine voting in parliamentary or presidential elections, three recent studies from Switzerland (Lanz and Nai 2014; Milic 2012; Nai 2015) provide unique evidence of correct voting in direct legislation ballots. They find that sophistication also increases the likelihood of correct voting in the context of choosing between policy proposals.…”