The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines

Yonson, Rio; Gaillard, JC

doi:10.1111/rode.12365

Cited by 53 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…hurricane damage costs and wind speed; however, the asset damage for Hurricane Harvey, and for many other tropical cyclones, is mostly associated with water, and not wind (Yonson et al, 2018), justifying the use of a linear damage function. Based on the methods described above, we assess the direct economic costs of Hurricane Harvey that are attributable to anthropogenic influences on the climate to likely be in the range of US$30bn to US$72bn, with a best estimate of US$67bn.…”

Section: Estimated Economic Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change

et al. 2020

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Hurricane Harvey is one of the costliest tropical cyclones in history. In this paper, we use a probabilistic event attribution framework to estimate the costs associated with Hurricane Harvey that are attributable to anthropogenic influence on the climate system. Results indicate that the "fraction of attributable risk" for the rainfall from Harvey was likely about at least a third with a preferable/best estimate of three quarters. With an average estimate of damages from Harvey assessed at about US$90bn, applying this fraction gives a best estimate of US$67bn, with a likely lower bound of at least US$30bn, of these damages that are attributable to the human influence on climate. This "bottom-up" event-based estimate of climate change damages contrasts sharply with the more "top-down" approach using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or global macroeconometric estimates: one IAM estimates annual climate change damages in the USA to be in the region of US$21.3bn. While the two approaches are not easily comparable, it is noteworthy that our "bottom-up" results estimate that one single extreme weather event contributes more to climate change damages in the USA than an entire year by the "top-down" method. Given that the "top-down" approach, at best, parameterizes but does not resolve the effects of extreme weather events, our findings suggest that the "bottom-up" approach is a useful avenue to pursue in future attempts to refine estimates of climate change damages.

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Section: Estimated Economic Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change

et al. 2020

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“…Potential indicators of it are characteristics of the habitat of people, density of population, livelihood and environment [ 23 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 ]. Hazard is the probability of occurrence of a physical event that have potential to cause damage or loss to human lives and properties [ 35 , 36 ]. Intensity based on wind speed at the time of landfall and return period are often used as key characteristics for cyclone hazard assessment [ 37 , 38 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Risks from Cyclones for Human Lives and Livelihoods in the Coastal Region of Bangladesh

Quader

Khan

Kervyn

2017

IJERPH

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As a disaster prone country, Bangladesh is regularly hit by natural hazards, including devastating cyclones, such as in 1970, 1991 and 2007. Although the number of cyclones’ fatalities reduced from 0.3 million in 1970 to a few thousand or fewer in recent events, loss of lives and impact on livelihoods remains a concern. It depends on the meteorological characteristics of cyclone and the general vulnerability and capacity of the exposed population. In that perspective, a spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential step towards targeted disaster risk reduction. This study aims at analyzing the spatial variation of the different factors contributing to the risk for coastal communities at regional scale, including the distribution of the hazards, exposure, vulnerability and capacity. An exploratory factor analysis method is used to map vulnerability contrasts between local administrative units. Indexing and ranking using geospatial techniques are used to produce maps of exposure, hazard, vulnerability, capacities and risk. Results show that vulnerable populations and exposed areas are distributed along the land sea boundary, islands and major inland rivers. The hazard, assessed from the density of historical cyclone paths, is highest in the southwestern part of the coast. Whereas cyclones shelters are shown to properly serve the most vulnerable populations as priority evacuation centers, the overall pattern of capacity accounting for building quality and road network shows a more complex pattern. Resultant risk maps also provide a reasonable basis from which to take further structural measures to minimize loss of lives in the upcoming cyclones.

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“…In a subnational assessment, Yonson, et al [67] find that in the case of the Philippines provinces, socioeconomic development and good governance are negatively associated with disaster deaths, while unplanned urbanization is positively correlated with mortality. Interestingly, they find that disaster deaths appear to be influenced more by vulnerability and exposure than by the tropical cyclone (hazard) strength.…”

Section: Kellenberg and Mobarakmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards: A Survey of Concepts and Measurements

Noy

Yonson

2018

Sustainability

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With the shift from a hazard-centered disaster paradigm to one that places emphasis on vulnerability and resilience, disasters triggered by natural hazards have begun to be perceived as unnatural occurrences. To date, the theoretical conceptualization and empirical measures of vulnerability and resilience remain subjects of contentions. This survey of the empirical economic literature aims to describe the progress made in the conceptualization and measurement of the economic dimensions of vulnerability and resilience in the context of natural hazards, and to provide useful insights for policy-making. Economic vulnerability and economic resilience, interacting with the hazard itself, and the exposure of populations and physical assets, are considered to be critical determinants of the resulting impacts of disasters. The empirical evidence provides systematic support for the hypothesis that apart from the characteristics of the hazards, the potential for people and economies to avoid adverse impacts and their capacity to withstand and rebound from a disaster are influenced by a confluence of socio-economic factors.

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The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines

Cited by 53 publications

References 23 publications

The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change

The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change

Assessing Risks from Cyclones for Human Lives and Livelihoods in the Coastal Region of Bangladesh

Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards: A Survey of Concepts and Measurements

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