The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

Lionello, Piero; Cogo, Susanna; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, Antonella

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.004

Cited by 116 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…For the future reference, A1B run data are plotted in the same figure as a dashed red line. In agreement with other recent studies (Lionello et al, 2003(Lionello et al, , 2008, no systematic wave height underestimation appears evident, and this used to plague runs based on global climatological models. More specifically, even though model results and observations cannot be fully reconciled at the ISMAR-CNR platform in winter and spring, modeled and observed data reproduce the annual variability of wave cycles.…”

Section: Wave Climate Model Validationsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In the Adriatic Sea region, which is characterized by a complex orography, this resolution was shown to adequately reproduce small spatial scale patterns, albeit using wind products from NWP systems (Signell et al, 2005). This approach allowed to provide a high-resolution mapping of the whole Adriatic Sea, in comparison with previous studies that were employing wind fields at about 50 km resolution (Lionello et al, 2008(Lionello et al, , 2012.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…In terms of sea wave projected changes, Lionello et al (2012) have recently shown how feasible is estimating the sea severity from future scenario simulations using regional climate model fields without the need of a statistical downscaling (as it was previously done in Lionello et al, 2003) nor the need to tune the wind fields magnitude to compensate for speed underestimation (Lionello et al, 2008). For example, Lionello et al (2012) used the wave model WAM (WAve prediction Model) to investigate extreme wind wave and storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Benetazzo

Fedele

Carniel

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We present a study on expected wind wave severity changes in the Adriatic Sea for the period 2070–2099 and their impact on extremes. To do so, the phase-averaged spectral wave model SWAN is forced using wind fields computed by the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the climate version of the COSMO meteorological model downscaled from a global climate model running under the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. Namely, the adopted wind fields are given with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and 40 vertical levels, and they are prepared by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA). Firstly, in order to infer the wave model accuracy in predicting seasonal variability and extreme events, SWAN results are validated against a control simulation, which covers the period 1965–1994. In particular, numerical predictions of the significant wave height Hs are compared against available in-situ data. Further, a statistical analysis is carried out to estimate changes on wave storms and extremes during the simulated periods (control and future scenario simulations). In particular, the generalized Pareto distribution is used to predict changes of storm peak Hs for frequent and rare storms in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, Borgman's theory is applied to estimate the spatial pattern of the expected maximum wave height Hmax during a storm, both for the present climate and that of the future scenario. Results show a future wave climate in the Adriatic Sea milder than the present climate, even though increases of wave severity can occur locally.

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Section: Wave Climate Model Validationsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Benetazzo

Fedele

Carniel

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…-Projections of wave climate in the Mediterranean area: Lionello et al (2008) and CasasPrat and Sierra (2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The general trend in the Mediterranean (Lionello et al 2008) shows a relative decrease in wave energy projections that, however, combined with the expected increase in mean sea level rise can still generate higher waves within harbours due to the effects of shoaling and diffraction.…”

Section: Projections Of Storm Tracksmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

et al. 2016

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The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems. However, ports have always been vulnerable to weather extremes and climate change could enhance such occurrences at timescales comparable to the design lifetime of harbour engineering structures. The analysis in this paper starts with the main climatic variables affecting harbour engineering and exploitation. It continues with a review of the available projections for such variables first at global scale and then at a regional scale (Catalan coast in the western Mediterranean) as a study case for similar environments in the planet. The detailed assessment of impacts starts from downscaled projections for mean sea level and wave storms (wind not considered in the paper). This is followed by an analysis of the port operations and infrastructure performance that are relevant from a climate perspective. The key climatic factors here considered are relative sea level, wave storm features (height, period, direction and duration) and their combined effect, which is expected to produce the highest impacts. The paper ends with a discussion and some examples of analyses aiming at port adaptation to future climate change.

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Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

Casas-Prat

Sierra

2013

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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[1] Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrapbased method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of H s up to 610% were obtained, whereas they were around 620% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of H s are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/ attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the H s magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

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The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

Cited by 116 publications

References 13 publications

Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

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