The Medium-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Dynamics: The Case of Italy

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an abrupt break in economic, demographic and social dynamics, both in developing countries and advanced economies, perhaps with a more significant impact in the latter, though further evidence is needed to support this assumption. Unfortunately, earlier research on medium- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on urban and regional systems—with particular reference to the demographic dimension—have not yet reached a consensus on methodological and operational approaches. In the present study, we have applied an interpretative framework to the analysis of the demographic balance in Italy, one of the most affected countries in the world, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we have compared a wide set of demographic indicators at two time periods of equal duration (2002–2010 and 2011–2019) and in two subsequent years (2020 and 2021), controlling for the regional context. These periods were chosen as sufficiently long to be representative of differentiated economic dynamics (2002–2010: economic expansion and demographic recovery; 2011–2019: recession and consequent demographic decline). Years 2020 and 2021 were assumed to reflect the short- and medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the statistical analysis highlight how the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted considerable pressure on population dynamics, determining short-term (mortality increase), medium-term (more volatile migration flows) and long-term (fertility decline) effects. Future studies should clarify the aggregate role of pandemics in population dynamics as a possible proxy of the decline of demographically fragile regions in advanced economies.

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy

“…Selection of a restricted number of non-redundant indicators relevant to this study was based on an early study by Alaimo et al ( 2022a ) that focused on the main changes in population dynamics affecting the demographic balance, and additional demographic phenomena possibly influenced by COVID-19 pandemic in the medium-term (Fiore et al 2020 ). Population balance indicators made available for each year of investigation include: (1) crude birth rate, (2) crude death rate, (3) the consequent natural balance (births–deaths), calculated as a percent rate of native population growth, (4) internal migration rate, (5) foreign migration rate, representative of the net migration balance (immigrants–emigrants), calculated as the percent rate of non-native population growth and, finally, (6) population annual growth rate (%).…”

“…Response to the intrinsic shock has been demonstrated to be more or less rapid depending on the specific process (Ullah et al 2020 ; De Rose et al 2021 ; Thomas et al 2022 ). Short-term, medium-term, and long-term effects can finally differ and literature evidence is still occasional, since only short-term impacts have been investigated with some details (Aassve et al 2021 ; Dumont 2021 ; Alaimo et al 2022a ; Bailey et al 2022 ).…”

Unraveling the European Agricultural Policy Sustainable Development Trajectory

“…This creates tensions between institutions and policies, potentially giving rise to conflicts and institutional change. Moreover, recent studies have shown that the COVID-19 pandemic [39] has created a shock to institutional structures, culminating in significant policy changes-and likely more-across the globe [39][40][41][42]. This unforeseen and abrupt disruption has compelled governments to enact new policies and regulations in order to address the health and economic repercussions of the pandemic [43].…”

The Contribution of Immigrants to Urban Economies: Exploring Citizens' Opinions in Athens, Greece

“…Despite these positive aspects, some native citizens remain skeptical of the impact of immigrants on urban economies (Alaimo et al, 2022;Zekovic & Maricic, 2020). Some argue that immigrants take jobs away from native citizens and depress wages (Lazaridis & Romaniszyn, 1998).…”