The Melting Snowball Effect: A Heuristic for Sustainable Arctic Governance Under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world's northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperatures have contributed to a rapid expansion of the mackerel stock which has spurred both geo-political tensions but also tensions at the science-policy interface of fish quota setting. These local climate-induced changes have created a domino-like chain reaction that intensifies through time as a warming Arctic penetrates deeper into responsibilities of governing institutions and science institutions. In face with the increasing uncertain futures of climate-induced changes, policy choices also increase revealing a type of "snowballing" of possible futures facing decision-makers. We introduce a portmanteau-inspired concept called "The Melting Snowball Effect" that encompasses the chain reaction ("domino effect") that increases the number of plausible scenarios ("snowball effect") with climate change (melting snow, ice and thawing permafrost). We demonstrate the use of "The Melting Snowball Effect" as a heuristic within a Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) framework of anticipation, engagement and reflection. To do this, we developed plausible scenarios based on participatory stakeholder workshops and narratives from in-depth interviews for deliberative discussions among academics, citizens and policymakers, designed for informed decision-making in response to climate change complexities. We observe generational differences in discussing future climate scenarios, particularly that the mixed group where three generations were represented had the most diverse and thorough deliberations.

Building adaptive capacity in a changing Arctic by use of technology

“…Environmental changes, such as those listed above, have implications that go well beyond availability of and access to food and water. They threaten the health and safety of residents, as well as Indigenous traditions and cultural identity that fundamentally rest upon contact with nature for sustenance (Cochran et al 2013, Larsen and Fondahl 2014, ICC 2015, Loring and Gerlach 2015, Clark et al 2016, Greaves 2016, Chatwood et al 2017, Gray et al 2018, Dankel et al 2020, Griffin 2020, AMAP 2021. Understanding the vulnerability of Indigenous people, including their capacity to respond and adapt in the face of environmental changes, is therefore of utmost importance to Arctic residents and decision makers alike.…”