The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society

Dijk, Albert I. J. M. van; Beck, Hylke E.; Crosbie, Russell; Jeu, R. A. M. de; Liu, Yi Y.; Podger, Geoff; Timbal, Bertrand; Viney, Neil R.

doi:10.1002/wrcr.20123

Cited by 1,104 publications

(615 citation statements)

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“…However, GRACE satellite gravity measurements still proved useful for estimating basin or large regional-scale TWS and GWS changes in Australia (e.g., Leblanc et al 2009;Rieser et al 2010;Awange et al 2011). The MDB experienced a severe drought, termed the Millennium Drought (2001van Dijk et al 2013), during which available in situ groundwater level measurements showed an alarming drop in groundwater storage in the southern MDB .…”

Section: Groundwater Depletion In Southern Murray-darling Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

et al. 2015

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Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray-Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.

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Section: Groundwater Depletion In Southern Murray-darling Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

et al. 2015

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“…Model simulations also compared favorably with other methods when evaluated against in situ observations of soil moisture (I. Dharssi, Bureau of Meteorology; personal communication) and evapotranspiration measured at flux towers [Van Dijk and Warren, 2010;King et al, 2012]. Model predictions for Australia have been evaluated against remotely sensed time series of total terrestrial water storage Tregoning et al, 2012;Forootan et al, 2012;Van Dijk et al, 2013], surface soil wetness [Van Dijk and Warren, 2010;Doubkova et al, 2012], vegetation greenness [Van Dijk and Warren, 2010;Van Dijk et al, 2013], and vegetation cover fraction, leaf area, and surface albedo [Van Dijk and Warren, 2010]. The model has also been used in drought analysis and in examining the statistical detectability of land cover impacts on streamflow [Van Dijk et al, 2012b].…”

Section: Prior Evaluation Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide

Dijk

Peña‐Arancibia

Wood

et al. 2013

Water Resources Research

Self Cite

138

107

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[1] Ideally, a seasonal streamflow forecasting system would ingest skilful climate forecasts and propagate these through calibrated hydrological models initialized with observed catchment conditions. At global scale, practical problems exist in each of these aspects. For the first time, we analyzed theoretical and actual skill in bimonthly streamflow forecasts from a global ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system. Forecasts were generated six times per year for 1979-2008 by an initialized hydrological model and an ensemble of 1 resolution daily climate estimates for the preceding 30 years. A post-ESP conditional sampling method was applied to 2.6% of forecasts, based on predictive relationships between precipitation and 1 of 21 climate indices prior to the forecast date. Theoretical skill was assessed against a reference run with historic forcing. Actual skill was assessed against streamflow records for 6192 small (<10,000 km 2 ) catchments worldwide. The results show that initial catchment conditions provide the main source of skill. Post-ESP sampling enhanced skill in equatorial South America and Southeast Asia, particularly in terms of tercile probability skill, due to the persistence and influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Actual skill was on average 54% of theoretical skill but considerably more for selected regions and times of year. The realized fraction of the theoretical skill probably depended primarily on the quality of precipitation estimates. Forecast skill could be predicted as the product of theoretical skill and historic model performance. Increases in seasonal forecast skill are likely to require improvement in the observation of precipitation and initial hydrological conditions. Citation: van Dijk, A. I. J. M., J. L. Peña-Arancibia, E. F. Wood, J. Sheffield, and H. E. Beck (2013), Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide, Water Resour.

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“…Several studies focused on understanding how the meteorological drought propagates to socio-economic drought (VAN LOON; VAN HUIJGEVOORT; VAN LANEN, 2012;BARKER et al, 2015;WANG et al, 2016;FIORILLO;GUADAGNO, 2010;TIGKAS;VANGELIS;TSAKIRIS, 2012). Quantifying linkages between types of droughts requires continuous monitoring of drought indicators and is critical for drought preparedness.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous estimates of the time lag between the onset of meteorological droughts and the impacts on the hydrological system ranged from few months (BARKER et al, 2015;VICENTE-SERRANO;LÓPEZ-MORENO, 2005) to few years (LEBLANC et al, 2009;VAN DIJK et al, 2013;BARKER et al, 2015). Quantifying such time lags is crucial to anticipate the associated impacts and implement mitigation measures to minimize such impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adopted approaches are widely different amongst studies. Van Dijk et al (2013) compared timing of occurrence of minimum values of average precipitation anomalies and total water storage. Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno (2005) calculated correlation coefficients (CC) between reservoir storage and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at different time scales and assuming that the time lag is given as the time scale with higher CC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts

Melo

Wendland

2016

RBRH

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Hydrological system's sensibility and resilience to dry periods are crucial for estimating the potential impacts of droughts. Quantifying response times (RT) of this system's components relative to droughts allows one to develop a predictive understanding of future impacts. In this context, this study proposes the use of non-parametric statistical methods to estimate RT between meteorological shifts, given by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the respective changes in the hydrological system, measured by river discharge (Q) and reservoir storage time series. Change point (CP) analyses were applied to time series of (i) SPI and accumulated storage relative to 32 reservoirs within the Paraná basin; and (ii) SPI, Q and reservoir storage relative to Furnas hydroelectric power plant. Based on the responses from CP analyses, RT in case (i) varied from 0 -6 months, whereas, in case (ii), results indicate that significant changes in Q occurred in the same month of changes in rainfall. Results also suggest a minor role of anthropogenic factors (dam operation) compared to natural forcing in reservoir depletion during the 2014 drought than that in 2000/2001. This study reinforces the importance of an optimized reservoir management, considering the balance between anthropogenic and natural forcing as a strategy to combat droughts impacts.Keywords: Meteorological drought; SPI; Change point analysis; Time series. RESUMOA sensibilidade de um sistema hidrológico e sua capacidade de recuperação após períodos de estiagem são questões determinantes para estimar o impacto potencial de secas. A quantificação dos tempos de resposta (TR) de componentes desse sistema em relação às secas possibilita antecipar futuros impactos. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho propõe a utilização de métodos estatísticos não-paramétricos para estimar TR entre mudanças meteorológicas, medidas por meio do índice de precipitação padronizado (SPI), e respectivas alterações no sistema hidrológico, medidas por meio de séries de vazão (Q) e de armazenamento em reservatórios. Para o desenvolvimento deste trabalho, foram estimados os pontos de mudanças das séries temporais de (i) SPI e volume de armazenamento mensal equivalente de 32 reservatórios da bacia do Rio Paraná; e de (ii) SPI, vazão e volume de armazenamento no reservatório da usina hidrelétrica de Furnas. Com base nas respostas dos métodos empregados, o TR para o caso (i) varia de 0 a 6 meses, enquanto que, para o caso (ii), os resultados indicam que mudanças significativas na vazão devido a mudanças na precipitação ocorrem em menos de 1 mês. Os resultados também mostram que os fatores antropogênicos (operação dos reservatórios) contribuíram menos para depleção dos reservatórios na seca de 2014 do que em 2000/2001. Este trabalho reforça a importância da otimização na operação de reservatórios visando o melhor equilíbrio entre fatores naturais e antropogênicos como estratégia de combate aos efeitos das secas.

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The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society

Abstract: Key Points Drivers and impacts of Australia's record drought were analyzed Impacts accumulated and propagated through the water cycle at different rates Future droughts may not be managed better than past ones.

Cited by 1,104 publications

References 73 publications

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide

Hydrological system time lag responses to meteorological shifts

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