“…Two frequently used learning methods that in many cases 'automatically' protect against overfitting are Bayesian inference (Bernardo & Smith, 1994) and the Minimum Description Length (MDL) Principle (Rissanen, 1989;Barron, Rissanen, & Yu, 1998;Grünwald, 2005Grünwald, , 2007. We show that, when applied to classification problems, some of the standard variations of these two methods can be inconsistent in the sense that they asymptotically overfit: there exist scenarios where, no matter how much data is available, the generalization error of a classifier based on MDL or the full Bayesian posterior does not converge to the minimum achievable generalization error within the set of classifiers under consideration.…”