The mirage of Madrid: elusive ambition on the horizon

Abstract

In December 2019, country delegations convened for their annual climate conference. COP-25, that is, the 25th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1 , took place in 'Madrid, Chile'located politically in Chile but physically in Madrid. 2 As always, expectations abounded. The conference was to deliver the final rules for a global carbon market. It was also supposed to send a strong signal on increased ambition, ahead of countries revising the climate targets and policies set out in their 'nationally determined contributions' (NDCs) in 2020. The Madrid Climate Conference failed to deliver on both accounts. There is no clear pathway towards enhanced ambition of climate targets in 2020 and negotiations on carbon markets broke down yet again. Ambition. The communication of new NDCs was not on the official agenda of the Madrid Climate Conference. However, COP-25 provided the last opportunity to generate some momentum towards the formulation of new and updated NDCs, addressing the ambition gap between current NDCswhich remain largely unchanged from the 'Intended' NDCs submitted by Parties in advance of the Paris Climate Conference in 2015and the urgency of action that science demands. 3 Current NDCs are nowhere near the emission cuts needed to limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C found that current NDCs would result in global emission levels of 52-58 GtCO 2 e by 2030, almost double the 25-30 GtCO 2 e emissions required for a 1.5°C-compatible 2030 benchmark. 4 This could result in global temperature increase between 2 and 4.9°C by 2100 (Raftery, Zimmer, Frierson, Startz, & Liu, 2017). In the run-up to the conference, the Chilean government had put a lot of effort into collecting commitments from countries to renew and raise the ambition of the mitigation targets included in their NDCs. At the UN Secretary-General's Climate Action summit in September 2019, it launched the 'Climate Ambition Alliance' 5 with the aim of accelerating the transformation needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Alliance was created to bring together nations that committed to upscaling their action in 2020 as well as those that are working towards achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in their countries by 2050. The 59 initial commitments under the Alliance came mostly from smaller countries that pledged to submit more ambitious NDCs, contributing together not much more than ten percent of global emissions. 6 By the end of the Madrid conference, a number of European and a few middle-income countries had joined the Alliance and committed to submit new and more ambitious NDCs in 2020. 7 Weakened and distracted by civil unrest at home, the Chilean government still tried to rally support for additional pledges in Madrid, describing it as a 'launchpad' 8 for high climate ambition. However, neither the hundreds of thousands of protesters taking to the streets of Madrid in support of strong climate action, nor Greta Thunberg's presence, nor...

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