The MJO From CMIP5 to CMIP6: Perspectives From Tracking MJO Precipitation

Chen, Guiwan; Jian, Ling; Zhang, Rongwang; Xiao, Ziniu; Li, Chongyin

doi:10.1029/2021gl095241

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…These studies explored future MJO characteristics using the earlier CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. An evaluation based on CMIP6 models is underway [14][15][16] . We here summarize a few key points on the future projections of the MJO lifecycle as discussed by earlier literature.…”

Section: Projected Changes In the Mjo Lifecycle As Discussed By The E...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Dasgupta

Roxy

Prajeesh

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), characterized by slow eastward moving (at an average speed of 5 m s-1) largescale cloud bands and associated circulations, is a dominant tropical phenomenon that impacts global weather and climate. Recent studies have reported significant changes in the MJO lifecycle during the post-satellite period (1979 onwards) due to the non-uniform tropical ocean warming. However, the relative roles of natural climate variability and anthropogenic impact in the observed MJO lifecycle change remain unclear and are yet to be determined. In this study, we investigate the observed and projected long-term changes in the MJO lifecycle during the 20th and 21st centuries using four 20th century reanalyses (NCEP-20CRV3, NCEP-20CRV2c, ERA-20C, and CERA-20C) and climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under different future emission scenarios. Here, we show for the first time a significant increase in the MJO phase speed by almost 1 m s-1 during the 20th century (1900–2014), potentially caused by the steepening of the meridional moisture distribution due to the increased moisture in the tropics compared to the extra-tropics. We also observe a prominent multidecadal variability of the MJO phase speed due to the changes in the zonal moisture distribution associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Future climate projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from CMIP6 indicate an increase in the MJO phase speed by 0.10 (SSP1—sustainable path, low emission scenario), 0.68 (SSP2—intermediate emissions) and 1.18 (SSP5—high emission scenario) m s-1 during the 21st century (2015–2100), in response to further steepening of the meridional moisture distribution over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The increasing MJO phase speed can potentially impact the MJO-related teleconnections and predictability of global weather and climate, and hence need to be monitored closely.

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Section: Projected Changes In the Mjo Lifecycle As Discussed By The E...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Dasgupta

Roxy

Prajeesh

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With considerable improvement in physics parameterizations, the general performance on the simulation of the MJO is improved in the CMIP6 models compared to the CMIP5 models (Ahn et al., 2020; G. Chen et al., 2022; Orbe et al., 2020). However, many CMIP6 models still underestimate MJO amplitude and struggle to simulate realistic eastward propagation patterns (G. Chen et al., 2022; Le et al., 2021). The realistic representation of the MJO in GCMs is a challenging task in that it involves physical processes with large uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate underestimated MJO amplitude and low coherency between large‐scale wind field and convection system (Ahn et al., 2017). With considerable improvement in physics parameterizations, the general performance on the simulation of the MJO is improved in the CMIP6 models compared to the CMIP5 models (Ahn et al., 2020; G. Chen et al., 2022; Orbe et al., 2020). However, many CMIP6 models still underestimate MJO amplitude and struggle to simulate realistic eastward propagation patterns (G. Chen et al., 2022; Le et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…considerable improvement in physics parameterizations, the general performance on the simulation of the MJO is improved in the CMIP6 models compared to the CMIP5 models (Ahn et al, 2020;G. Chen et al, 2022;Orbe et al, 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chen et al, 2022;Orbe et al, 2020). However, many CMIP6 models still underestimate MJO amplitude and struggle to simulate realistic eastward propagation patterns (G. Chen et al, 2022;Le et al, 2021). The realistic representation of the MJO in GCMs is a challenging task in that it involves physical processes with large uncertainties.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Global Simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation With Stochastic Unified Convection Scheme

Shin

Baik

2023

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Sensitivity of simulated MJO to model vertical resolution in GAMIL3

Wang,

Li,

Wang

et al. 2024

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The impact of model vertical resolutions on simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was investigated using five AMIP simulations by the Grid‐point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG, version 3 (GAMIL3) with different vertical layers. Results showed that higher vertical resolutions produce a stronger and superior eastward propagation, coupled circulation–convection relationship, and MJO strength, as well as other convectively coupled equatorial waves when compared to the lowest vertical resolution. The improvements may be related to a better description of the tropical circulation in the higher vertical resolutions and model top, albeit without the significant improvement of MJO convection and stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation in all simulations. Among the four tested high resolutions, the simulations with higher vertical resolutions from the surface to about 850 hPa produced better eastward propagation and larger total explained variance of the MJO, indicating the importance of the lower troposphere in simulating the MJO.

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The MJO From CMIP5 to CMIP6: Perspectives From Tracking MJO Precipitation

Cited by 15 publications

References 46 publications

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Global Simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation With Stochastic Unified Convection Scheme

Sensitivity of simulated MJO to model vertical resolution in GAMIL3

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