The Model of Public Official Dismissal to Eradicate Corruption in Indonesia

Aritonang, Dinoroy Marganda

doi:10.20476/jbb.v20i1.1863

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…After the diagnostic test, the ideal model will be chosen based on the lowest MAE, MAPE, and MSE values. The greater the standard error of a statistic, the more unstable or less significant the statistic is [7] The results of the calculation of these values can be seen in the following table.…”

Section: Selection the Best Arima Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of Autoregresssive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on Forecasting the Number of Positive Cases of Covid-19 in North Sumatra on September 2021

Laia,

Zahedi

2022

J. of Maths Tech and Edu

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North Sumatra is one of the provinces in Indonesia with a high number of positive cases of Covid-19 so that North Sumatra has been in the red and yellow zone for several months. The increasing number of positive cases can have an impact on various aspects of people's lives. To do optimal mitigation, forecasting is necessary, which is a technique to estimate a value in the future by paying attention to past data and current data. One method that can be used is the ARIMA method. The data used is daily data from May to August 2021 obtained from the official website of the covid19.go.id. The ARIMA model obtained from this study is the ARIMA(1,1,0) model with MAE, MAPE and MSE values of 453,175203, 3,312754324, and 6161032,938, respectively. Forecast results for September show a daily increase so it is expected that the government will make efforts to prevent this.

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Section: Selection the Best Arima Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of Autoregresssive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on Forecasting the Number of Positive Cases of Covid-19 in North Sumatra on September 2021

Laia,

Zahedi

2022

J. of Maths Tech and Edu

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“…Selain itu, terdapat juga Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) yang merupakan perhitngan menggunakan kesalahan absolute pada setiap periode lalu dibagi dengan nilai pengamatan yang nyata untuk periode tersebut. Semakin kecil nilai MAPE maka semakin akurat pula hasil atau teknik peramalan yang dilakukan dan sebaliknya (Aritonang, 2002). Berikut merupakan rumus untuk menentukan nilai MAPE:…”

Section: Pengukuran Akurasiunclassified

Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Moving Average Pada Peramalan Penjualan Produk Minyak Goreng Di Pt Tunas Baru Lampung

Chaerunnisa

Momon

2021

JURNAL REKAYASA SISTEM INDUSTRI UPB

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PT Tunas Baru Lampung is a company that produces palm cooking oil products under the Rose Brand brand. In product sales, companies sometimes experience ups and downs. Based on the sales data from Rose Brand Cooking Oil, the size of 1 L has fluctuated or in each period it changes and is not always boarding. Even though product sales are one of the important things to be evaluated from time to time on an ongoing basis. To predict future sales, forecasting is done. The forecasting method used is Double Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average. The method of accuracy will be compared using MSE, MAD, and MAPE. The results showed a comparison of the accuracy and the smallest error value in each method. By using the weight values 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, and 0.8 on the Single Exponential Smoothing method the weight value is 0.8 or α = 0.8, namely MSE of 250,570,764.80, MAD of 12,922.32 and MAPE of 33.55 Then, using the movement value n = 3 in the Moving Average method has an accuracy of 438,980,942.75 MSE, 18,142.14 MAD, and 41.37 MAPE. After comparing the accuracy of the two methods, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is the best method to predict sales of Rose Brand 1 L Cooking Oil products.

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“…Kegiatan impor dilakukan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan penduduk suatu negara. Produk impor merupakan barang-barang yang tidak dapat dihasilkan oleh suatu negara atau yang sudah dapat dihasilkan namun tidak dapat mencukupi kebutuhan domestiknya (Benny, 2013 (Aritonang, 2002). Sebelum model dikembangkan, model akan diuji terlebih dahulu pada kegiatan proyeksi untuk mengetahui apakah model tersebut sudah tepat atau belum.…”

Section: Proyeksi Ekspor Beras Nasional Melalui Gerakan Tigaunclassified

“…Metode rata-rata bergerak merupakan metode yang dilakukan dengan menghitung rata-rata suatu nilai runtut waktu dan kemudian menggunakannya untuk meramal pada periode selanjutnya (Aritonang, 2002). Double exponential smoothing merupakan metode yang tepat bagi data yang memiliki pola data musiman dan trend.…”

Section: Proyeksi Ekspor Beras Nasional Melalui Gerakan Tigaunclassified

Proyeksi Ekspor Beras Nasional Melalui Gerakan Tiga Kali Lipat Ekspor (Gratieks) Pertanian Indonesia

Sa’diah¹,

Tamami²

2020

pamator

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Indonesia memiliki neraca perdagangan beras yang selalu negatif, artinya impor beras jauh lebih tinggi dari ekspornya. Merujuk pada strategi dan target Kementerian Pertanian Kabinet Indonesia Maju, pemerintah menggalakan kebijakan Gerakan Tiga Kali Lipat Ekspor (Gratieks) oleh petani dan pengusaha. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk: (1) mengetahui perkembangan produksi, konsumsi, dan impor beras di Indonesia pada tahun 1999-2018, serta (2) mengetahui proyeksi ekspor beras Indonesia pada tahun 2019-2023 dengan metode forecasting Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing, dan ARIMA terhadap data ekspor tahun 1999-2018. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa permodelan terbaik adalah ARIMA ordo tentatif p,d,q 101 dengan MAPE 0,94. Berdasarkan target pemerintah tentang tiga kali lipat ekspor dari tahun 2018, masih terdapat marjin yang harus dicapai untuk memenuhi target dengan asumsi kebijakan yang diterapkan sama dengan yang berlaku sebelumnya.

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The Model of Public Official Dismissal to Eradicate Corruption in Indonesia

Cited by 3 publications

References 2 publications

Implementation of Autoregresssive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on Forecasting the Number of Positive Cases of Covid-19 in North Sumatra on September 2021

Implementation of Autoregresssive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on Forecasting the Number of Positive Cases of Covid-19 in North Sumatra on September 2021

Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Moving Average Pada Peramalan Penjualan Produk Minyak Goreng Di Pt Tunas Baru Lampung

Proyeksi Ekspor Beras Nasional Melalui Gerakan Tiga Kali Lipat Ekspor (Gratieks) Pertanian Indonesia

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