The Modeling Impact of Different Food Policy Scenarios on Incidence and Mortality from type 2 Diabetes in Azar Cohort Population

Abstract

Background: Given the impact of high intake sugar sweetened beverages on type2 diabetes, intervention to reduce their consumption can be a top priority for any health system. Thus, the purpose of the present study is to simulate the impact of policy options related to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages on the prevalence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Iranian men and women.Methods: A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was used to predict the effect of several policy options on the incidence and death from type 2 diabetes in Azar Cohort Databases. Population age-and sex-specific prevalence and incidence rate of diagnosed diabetes were derived from the national health data. The PRIME model was used for coding the input parameters of simulation using R and Python software.Results: The prevalence and mortality rate of type 2 diabetes under the scenario of reduced consumption of sugar sweetened beverages indicated that the highest and lowest prevalence and mortality rates of type 2 diabetes for men and women were related to no policy condition and replacing sugar-sweetened beverages with healthy drinks such as water, respectively. Also, the maximum number of death postponed/prevented from type 2 diabetes was related to replacing sugar-sweetened beverages with water and levying 10% tax on sugar sweetened beverages, respectively. Conclusion: Regarding the effect of simulating different policy options on reducing the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, the most effective policy options were replacing sugar-sweetened beverages with water.