The “New Normal” in Supreme Court Confirmation Voting: Hyper-Partisanship in the Trump Era

Basinger, Scott J.; Mak, Maxwell

doi:10.1080/07343469.2020.1733708

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Overall, the VIPs confirm the importance of HO’s explanatory variables of interest, but indicate an opportunity to explore the nature of the effects of chamber polarization (an increasingly important predictor of Senate behavior: e.g. Basinger and Mak (2020)), which we examine in further detail below.…”

Section: Example 1: Howard and Owens (2020)mentioning

confidence: 70%

How to Cautiously Uncover the “Black Box” of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars

Jordan

Paul

Philips

2022

Legislative Studies Qtrly

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Machine learning models, especially ensemble and tree‐based approaches, offer great promise to legislative scholars. However, they are heavily underutilized outside of narrow applications to text and networks. We believe this is because they are difficult to interpret: while the models are extremely flexible, they have been criticized as “black box” techniques due to their difficulty in visualizing the effect of predictors on the outcome of interest. In order to make these models more useful for legislative scholars, we introduce a framework integrating machine learning models with traditional parametric approaches. We then review three interpretative plotting strategies that scholars can use to bring a substantive interpretation to their machine learning models. For each, we explain the plotting strategy, when to use it, and how to interpret it. We then put these plots in action by revisiting two recent articles from Legislative Studies Quarterly.

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Section: Example 1: Howard and Owens (2020)mentioning

confidence: 70%

How to Cautiously Uncover the “Black Box” of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars

Jordan

Paul

Philips

2022

Legislative Studies Qtrly

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“…Today, liberals are deeply disturbed by what they perceive as the unfair tactics that have led to an enlargement of the conservative majority on the Supreme Court (Basinger & Mak, 2020), while conservatives are incensed at what they perceive as insufficient efforts to restrain protests such as the Occupy and Black Lives Matter movements (Rothbart & Stebbins, 2022; Updegrove et al, 2020).…”

Section: Seven Comparisons Of the Social Psychology In The Decade Bef...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Another Civil War in America? Comparing the Social Psychology of the United States of the 1850s to Today

Van Wart,

Hall,

Barber

et al. 2024

Administration & Society

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Scholars warn that another American civil war is increasingly plausible, if still unlikely; professional political commentators express greater concerns. This study examines the likelihood of another U.S. civil war by comparing perspectives of the 1850s with those of today by using a negative social capital framework as the analytic lens. The analysis finds striking similarities between the two periods. Yet, civil war is a relatively rare phenomenon in developed countries, and the analysis also points to contemporary mitigating examples. At least for the foreseeable future, more likely are trajectories moving toward other types of social unrest short of civil war: ongoing civil strife, additional insurrections, decades-long intraregional political gridlock causing widespread administrative dysfunction, and even a failure to relinquish power. The negative social psychology has already had an extraordinary impact on public administration and is unlikely to decrease in the near term; it may yet increase exponentially as it did in the 1860s.

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Congressional Communication in a Pandemic: “Follow the Leader” Politics and Responsive Representation

Cormack

Meidlinger

2021

Congress & the Presidency

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The “New Normal” in Supreme Court Confirmation Voting: Hyper-Partisanship in the Trump Era

Cited by 4 publications

References 15 publications

How to Cautiously Uncover the “Black Box” of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars

How to Cautiously Uncover the “Black Box” of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars

Another Civil War in America? Comparing the Social Psychology of the United States of the 1850s to Today

Congressional Communication in a Pandemic: “Follow the Leader” Politics and Responsive Representation

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