The “New” Normal: Instability Risk Assessment in an Uncertainty-Based Strategic Environment

Bosley, LT Chris C.

doi:10.1093/isr/viw038

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…These rules and arrangements can be informal and diffuse, but as political orders have historically grown in scale and sophistication they have typically become more formally institutionalized, legalistic, and, since the middle to late eighteenth-century "constitutionalized." When the rules and arrangements of the order are broadly accepted, the order is stable; when they are seriously questioned the order becomes contested and its stability and even existence compromised (Margolis 2010;Bosley 2017).…”

Section: Rules and Arrangementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As John Owen (2010) demonstrates, over the past five hundred years, periodic bouts of transnational ideological polarization have generated repeated grand competitions over the nature of political order. Elites, and eventually wider populations, adopt new forms of political ordervia adaptation or revolutionwhen the material and cultural environment alters sufficiently to pose serious anomalies to the ancien régime (also Margolis 2010;Bosley 2017). As long as enough elites maintain the belief that the old order can weather the challenge, a transnational struggle will ensue among elites over order-preference.…”

Section: Order Contestation and Selection: Liberal Orders As Serial S...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Liberal Order in the Twenty-First Century: Searching for Eunomia Once Again

Magen¹

2019

SCHM

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Adherents of economic and political liberty are again compelled to ask fundamental questions about the nature and prospects of good order (or Eunomia). This article: (1) offers a quaternary definition of the concept of “order;” (2) contends that Eunomia is essentially about the creation, adaptation, and protection of the conditions necessary for human beings to live lives that are free from fear so as to maximize each individual’s unique potential for human flourishing; and (3) outlines an evolutionary understanding of Eunomia, whereby contemporary liberal orders represent the cumulative outcome of three sets of elite-selected “wins” over illiberal ones. To survive and thrive in the twenty-first century liberalism must once again contest and defeat rival orders.

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Section: Rules and Arrangementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Order Contestation and Selection: Liberal Orders As Serial S...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Liberal Order in the Twenty-First Century: Searching for Eunomia Once Again

Magen¹

2019

SCHM

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“…Being a critical issue of business environment, risk assessment has been a hot research topic in recent decades. Especially with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 by the Chinese President Xi Jinping, a subset of the issue, political risk assessment, has become increasingly important [1][2][3][4][5]. BRI is also known as One Belt One Road (OBOR), aiming to increase cooperation among participating countries [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Big Data-Based Assessment of Political Risk along the Belt and Road

et al. 2021

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Political risk assessment has become increasingly important in recent years, especially with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and with Covid-19 still ravaging the world. This study aims to assess systematically the political risk of BRI countries during the period from 2013 to 2019 based on three big data sets, the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT), and Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). It is found that to properly quantify the political risks for BRI countries, the type of events, “Material Conflict”, and a variable characterizing the degree of cooperation/conflicts of the events, the Goldstein Scale, are of critical importance. Based on the chosen type of events and variable, we design a normalized variable to assess political risk of any country in any year so that comparison among different countries can be meaningly made. By decomposing political risk into two components, domestic and international, and examining the spatiotemporal evolution of political risk along the Belt and Road, we find that the sum of the number of BRI countries with the extremely high level and the high level of domestic, international, and (overall) political risk all reached the peak in 2015, and decreased thereafter, and that often the level of domestic political risk along the Belt and Road was higher than the international political risk. It is also found that a strong positive correlation exists between political risk and China’s total investments and construction contracts along the Belt and Road during this period. The implications of this positive correlation are discussed. The analysis presented here may help to promote the sustainable development of BRI, and be extended to examine the risks associated with foreign investments other than BRI projects.

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“…Due to the recent global pandemic, a highly unstable socioeconomic environment has emerged [1]. The profound impact of the crisis extends well beyond the economic and financial aspects, as policymakers need to cope with new challenges, such as economic downturns, layoffs, pay cuts, corporate failures, steeply increases in unemployment, and street protests (or demonstrations).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Extensive Evolutionary Mental Game Model for the Mandatory Evacuation of Protesters by Police

Lei

et al. 2021

IEEE Access

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The street protests and other mass demonstrations that have occurred frequently in recent years have resulted in considerable political pressure and have destabilized countries. How governments respond to such emergencies, and whether to evacuate protesters quickly, has been one of the most important public management challenges facing modern governments. In the case of evacuating protesters through police force, issues to consider include the cognitive differences among the conflicting parties and the cost-benefit considerations between the alternative strategies of mandatory evacuation and compromise. In this paper, the evolutionary dynamic of the mandatory evacuation of protesters by police is analyzed by extensive evolutionary game theory. Considering the cognitive differences among the conflicting parties, mental models of the interactions between government officials and protesters are constructed, which can not only avoid the uncertainty of evolutionary equilibrium but also consider the belief learning in the interior of the dynamic stage game. The evolutionary dynamic analysis of the mandatory evacuation of protesters is subsequently performed. To verify the effectiveness of the model set out, a multiagent simulation analysis based on a real case study of the Ningbo PX incident is presented. Furthermore, the decision-making related to police evacuation of protesters is based on the cost-benefit analysis between mandatory evacuation and compromise, the minimal number of police required, and the on-the-spot deployment plans of the police. The analysis shows that when facing protesters marching along a street, the evacuation measures are more effective if the police actions target the first several rows of protesters. However, in the case of protesters gathering near iconic buildings (or surrounding their demonstration leaders), the emergency plan of the mandatory evacuation of the protesters is less effective.

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The “New” Normal: Instability Risk Assessment in an Uncertainty-Based Strategic Environment

Cited by 3 publications

References 37 publications

Liberal Order in the Twenty-First Century: Searching for Eunomia Once Again

Liberal Order in the Twenty-First Century: Searching for Eunomia Once Again

Big Data-Based Assessment of Political Risk along the Belt and Road

An Extensive Evolutionary Mental Game Model for the Mandatory Evacuation of Protesters by Police

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